This looks like a match where the home side is priced as a stronger team than the recent numbers say. Celta Vigo are a low-event side that struggles to turn possession into shots on target, while Royale Union SG have been dominating both shots and shots on target in a long unbeaten run.
Celta come in with a poor stretch: a defeat at Rayo with no shot on target, a goalless draw with Betis, and a European table position of 25th. They have scored one goal or fewer in most of their last ten and have been without two centre-backs since mid-October, so the form already reflects those gaps.
Union are sixth in the same table, with an xG edge of roughly two against under one over their last seven games and a big lead in shots on target. Much of that came against weaker Belgian opposition, and their forwards Hurtevent and Biondic are out, but their replacements have kept the scoring going.
I expect Union to hold more of the ball and Celta to sit compact and look for a counter or a set piece. A Celta goal first would make it a hard day for Union's finishing against a low block, but Celta have rarely come from behind. That is why I'm siding with Union, with the stake returned if it ends level.
