Both games come down to which side manages the chance count while the other is patching its defence. Cardiff and West Ham are close on paper but West Ham have the longer, better chance record. Porto and Napoli are near level on chances, but Napoli arrive with a depleted back line and midfield.
In Cardiff against West Ham, West Ham average about 2.1 expected goals for and 1.3 against over ten league games, against 1.9 and 1.6 for Cardiff. Cardiff are without two defenders, confirmed on a fresh check and consistent with recent matches, while West Ham are unbeaten in four away games. Cardiff's home form is good and they have created heavily in their last two home games, so an early home goal is the way this turns. Draws have been rare for both teams in their last ten. That's why I'm siding with West Ham to win.
In Porto against Napoli, Porto at home create around 1.6 expected goals and concede 1.2, while Napoli sit near 1.6 for and 1.5 against. Napoli are missing their holding midfielder and a long list of defenders, with two fresh absences added this week, so cover is thin against crosses and second balls. Porto were out-chanced in their two Champions League games, and De Bruyne's status is open, so a draw is a real outcome. That's why I'm siding with Porto at home, with the stake protected if it ends level.
