Two matches where one defence is broken in a way the other side is built to exploit. At Turf Moor, a Burnley back line that keeps leaking goals meets a Portsmouth side that needs very few chances. In Columbus, DC United arrive without their main scorer, their other designated forward or their starting keeper. In both games the team with the settled unit holds the structural edge.
Burnley have conceded in nine of their last ten, and over the last three games they let in eight goals from twenty shots on target. This week the back line is weaker again: Humphreys and Beyer are out, Walker went off at Lincoln and is doubtful, and the new coach has had only three days on the training pitch. They have also drawn seven of their last ten at home without a win. Portsmouth are the same side that went four unbeaten, allowing one or two shots on target a game and scoring through their wingers, a set piece or a late sub such as Waddingham.
At Burnley, I expect the hosts to push early under the new coach, with Portsmouth staying compact and breaking. If it's level at the break, the anxiety at Turf Moor grows, and Burnley's habit of conceding late keeps the visitors in it. That's why I'm siding with Portsmouth to come away unbeaten.
In Ohio, Baribo has scored sixteen of DC's thirty-nine goals and is out, and so are Munteanu and keeper Sean Johnson. Their brace-led win over Columbus in September was built on exactly the route that is now closed. DC are already eliminated, and in their last five games they managed only two to four shots on target each, against a Schulte who is in strong form.
Columbus have the stake, the home volume and a set-piece route through Chambost, who set up three goals against Toronto, two of them Amundsen headers. Their last four league wins all came by two goals or more. An early goal should open the game for their transition play against a DC side with nothing to chase for. That's why I'm siding with Columbus to win this comfortably.
