Two very different games here: one where a possession side meets a leaky, struggling block, and one where a shooting-variance home team faces a strong defence with a thin offence lately.
Mito against Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Hiroshima are third and live on territory: around 60 percent of the ball, five shots on target a game and a lot of entries into the box, including 13 of 16 shots from inside the area against Shimizu with seven on target. Mito are 17th, have lost five straight and have been giving up shots on target in bunches, including six goals at FC Tokyo. Their route is a deep block and a counter, and Hiroshima have shown away that they can be hit that way, conceding four at Nagasaki. Mito are also on a new coach's second match, and several of their defenders and forwards carry doubtful flags that I treat as a caution only. I expect Hiroshima to take the first goal and Mito to be forced open after that. That's why I'm siding with Hiroshima to win with a goal of margin.
Brooklyn against Detroit. Brooklyn are winless and the defence is the problem, but most of their losses were close, and their three-point volume keeps them in games. Detroit are first in the table on defence and balance, yet they scored only 97 in each of their last two games and their centre Jalen Duren is out, which gives Brooklyn a path on the glass. Brooklyn are at home with three days of rest. I expect Detroit to lead through defence, with Brooklyn's threes keeping the margin inside a possession or two. That's why I'm siding with Brooklyn getting the points at home.
