Brentford can create an early chance by finding Thiago from either wing or a restart. Forest can press the first home pass and move directly toward Delap, with a far wingback arriving beyond Brentford's advanced fullback. The decisive sequence is Brentford's first defensive possession after its own attack. In Vallecas, Rayo's press meets Celta's direct left outlet and tests whether territory becomes a second clean finish.
Brentford's Schade and Ouattara give Thiago real service, while Forest's Delap and Gibbs-White can challenge Kelleher's short exit. Williams supplies the far-side arrival that Forest used at Ipswich, and Brentford's recent wide recovery has left that area open.
Yarmolyuk was already absent from Brentford's last two squads, and Janelt played the cup match. Forest's Igor Jesus missed its recent games; Ndoye played at Ipswich but is now doubtful. Williams left that match with an arm issue and has since been declared fit.
Brentford can lead early, yet its recent leads have met replies after a first-pass error or a wide counter. Forest's two-wing supply and longer rest give it a concrete way to answer and hold the game level. That's why I'm siding with Nottingham to avoid defeat.
Rayo can pin Celta back with its press and deliver from both wings. Celta can leave through its first central pass to Galán and send Durán behind the pressure. Rayo's large shot counts have not consistently turned into a second clean finish in regulation.
Ciss started Rayo's last league game but is now suspended, changing the screen in front of its defense. Celta's Iglesias and Starfelt were already absent in its recent compact performances, while Rayo's Ratiu missed its last two starting elevens and remains doubtful.
The early press should create territory for Rayo, and Celta's left outlet gives it a reply when the first line is beaten. Celta has also found second-half contributions from Rodríguez in recent wins. That's why I'm siding with Celta to avoid defeat.
