This is a home side with real pace and volume against a visitor that has been leaking goals and has lost its cutting edge up front. Bodo/Glimt create roughly two expected goals a game on their own pitch, while Lille arrive without a point from the league phase and with ten goals conceded in three games.
Glimt's profile is open and aggressive: they score over two a game, press high and generate around seventeen shots. Their weakness is transition defence against stronger sides, as the 3-4 at Napoli showed, and a recent home loss to a weak side despite 22 shots was a finishing miss, not a collapse in structure.
Lille's attack is thin. Mbappe is suspended after the red card, Ueda and Igamane are out, and a centre-back is missing too, so their goals have to come from replacements. They have no away win in their last ten and were outshot badly at Arsenal. Glimt's own missing trio has been out through the last six matches including the 3-2 win, so that is their normal state rather than a new problem.
I expect Glimt to take territory early, with Lille looking for a counter or set piece. If Glimt score first, Lille have little to chase with and a two-goal gap is the natural result. That's why I'm siding with Bodo/Glimt to win comfortably at home.
