This first leg pits Boca's steady left-side box supply against Vasco's compact central defense and quick wide exits. Boca created repeated chances against Unión, although that match remained tight until late. Vasco have kept good chances scarce in their last two games while still finding ways to move forward.
Blanco and Palacios can feed Merentiel inside the box, so Vasco's Saldivia–Robert Renan pairing and midfield screen face a sustained test. Boca also need to win the second ball after those attacks; Instituto found goals from the aftermath of restarts. Vasco's Gómez and Paulo Henrique have the pace and passing to use space behind Boca's advancing fullbacks, while Nuno Moreira recently supplied chances after coming on.
Paredes is missing from Boca's midfield after his injury against Instituto, with Alarcón and other recent contributors available to fill different parts of that role. Colidio played Vasco's last league match but is ineligible here, so Adson or Nuno must provide the final pass. Bruno Duarte travelled after missing the Remo match and gives Vasco another central outlet.
Boca should have spells of territory, with Blanco's deliveries testing whether Vasco can clear and recover the next ball. Vasco's shape can keep those spells contained and turn recoveries into attacks through Gómez or Paulo Henrique. In a first leg where a draw keeps the tie open, that mix of central cover and genuine attacking exits is why I'm siding with Vasco to take something from this match.
