Two Europa League matches that should be decided late. At Celtic Park the first goal looks close to even, but the last half hour favours the side with the deeper bench. In Istanbul, both teams' attacks line up against weak spots in the other's defence, so neither side should be able to shut the game down.
Celtic v Celta Vigo. Celtic press high and attack wide with volume, while Celta sit in a mid-to-deep block and counter through Swedberg, Alvarez and Jutgla. Celta create little, around one expected goal a game, and have scored once in their last four away games. Their repeated weakness is holding leads: they were ahead in six of their last ten and kept only two of those leads, conceding at 83, 87 and 90+2 minutes.
The main matchup is Celtic's press against Celta's back-three build-up. An error under pressure already cost Celta against Juventus. Going the other way, Celta's runners will target a Celtic right side without Johnston, Carter-Vickers and Trusty. That back line played together in the 7-1 against Hearts, so the change from the last match is smaller than the list suggests. Celta, on the other hand, lose Nunez, call up four B-team players and bring an Aspas who is not ready for ninety minutes, which leaves them a thin bench.
With both teams on zero points, a draw helps neither, so the final stretch should open up, and that is where Celtic's bench should count. I'm siding with Celtic not to lose this one, with the draw covered.
Besiktas v Crystal Palace. At home Besiktas hold around sixty percent of the ball and shoot a lot. Under Sage, Palace give up a lot of shots in every match: 24 to Nottingham, 17 at Brighton and plenty more at Lyon. They will again have Benitez in goal behind a stand-in back three, now without Timber screening it, and they have conceded early from dead balls in two straight games.
Palace's attack still finds goals. They scored twice at Lyon while trailing, going direct to Strand Larsen with wing-backs running beyond him, while Besiktas leaked chances on the break at Trabzonspor even with only 38 percent of the ball. Kokcu's absence and a tired Besiktas squad make the winner harder to call than the game's shape. Whoever scores first, the other side has a clear route back.
That's why I'm expecting goals at both ends in Istanbul.
