Ajax and Atalanta both have ways to turn a loose first pass into a box chance, then add another wave from wide areas. Their fresh receivers make the later phases of that match as relevant as the opening pressure. Besiktas against Crystal Palace has a different rhythm: the home press will test Palace's central first pass, and each side has runners who can turn the first clean release into a chance. These are games where the response after an initial goal should shape the outcome.
Ajax can recover high and use Brandt, Klaassen or a far-side runner against an Atalanta central unit missing several senior defenders. Atalanta retain De Ketelaere, Scamacca and Krstović, and their Zalewski, Gaetano and Bellanova route added chances after a quiet first half against Milan. Ajax are without Blind and Berghuis, while Atalanta's official squad also excludes Raspadori. I expect enough repeat supply from both attacks to make this a high-scoring match, so I'm siding with goals.
Besiktas have used Miretti and their wide suppliers to reach a striker, and the Hoffenheim match showed finishes from both transition and a short corner. Palace have Disasi and Chilwell back, but Timber and Lerma are unavailable in the central protection around Wharton; recent first-pass losses and restart clearances have led to chances. Besiktas can press that exact area and keep supplying Oh or Vlahović after the first spell. That's why I'm siding with Besiktas to win.
