River go to Córdoba needing a win, and that need does Belgrano a favour. Zielinski's side have been at their best lately without the ball: they won 2-0 at Racing with 38% of it, and they're unbeaten in six away games this Clausura with one goal conceded. At home they've been far more ordinary, with six conceded in six. River arriving under pressure to attack takes the job of carrying the game off Belgrano, so they may get to play a home match the way they play away.
River's ball numbers are huge but the return is thin. They had 73% possession in each of their last two league games and got a 1-0 over Estudiantes de Río Cuarto from 28 shots, then a 1-1 at Sarmiento from 22. The home defeat to Huracán came with 75%. That's a team that can pin opponents back without turning it into much, which is exactly the matchup Belgrano have been winning.
The bench situation adds to it. Ponzio is still the interim, Diario Uno says Ramón Díaz is reported as the next coach, and Díaz himself said on a stream, as Infobae relays, that nobody from the club has contacted him. In the middle of that, Ponzio is expected to make four changes, with Rivero, Ortega, Aníbal Moreno and Lucas Beltrán coming in. A reshuffled side that also has to commit numbers forward is a lot to ask in one match. Infobae has River ninth in Zone B on 17 points and needing the win to get into the playoff places, while Belgrano, already in next year's Libertadores as Apertura champions, would draw level at the top with a win.
Where I'm unsure: Belgrano's comfort without the ball is built mostly on away games, and they've rarely had to sit deep in front of their own crowd for 90 minutes. They also beat River 3-2 in the Apertura final after coming from behind, so they know they can live with this River. If River score early, does Belgrano's patience hold, or does the home crowd pull them into the open game they've handled worse?
