AZ's home record still looks strong, but their league games since losing Smit tell a different story about who controls midfield. Twente arrive with an intact pivot and good underlying numbers. In Udine, the home side's attack is down to one fit striker, while Milan's set-piece threat survives their own injury list. Neither game is as simple as the table suggests.
AZ v Twente. Since Smit's injury AZ have not controlled league games: Feyenoord out-created them clearly, and even ten-man Cambuur matched their chances. Clasie is doubtful after missing the trip to Armenia, so the pivot may again be Koopmeiners with Oufkir or Kwakman. Twente's Zerrouki and Weidmann should win that duel.
AZ's best routes are quick breaks from Daal and Stengs behind Twente's high full-backs, the way Utrecht scored, and Byskov's free kicks. Twente's league numbers have been good, including 24 shots against Utrecht, and away from home they are unbeaten in their last ten. Their bench, with Van den Belt and Taha, has more late punch. I'm siding with Twente to come away with something.
Udinese v Milan. Udinese have lost five in a row and created little in their last two league games. Bayo and Gueye are out, and Zaniolo is only fit for the bench, so Davis is on his own up front. Their back line is missing Alaba and Zanoli and has conceded twice from corners to Lecce.
Milan miss Rabiot's runs and played Thursday with ten men for over an hour. But that was a rotated side, and Modric, Pulisic and Ramos are fresher. Modric's deliveries against a shaky set-piece defence are Milan's clearest route, and if Udinese have to come out they get exposed on the counter. I'm with Milan here, guarding against a stalemate.
