Arouca's width meets a Nacional side that can sit deep and break through Song. Elche and Valencia have a different contest: both can find wide space, but the next defensive action after the first chance looks decisive. In each match, the opening attack should create a response rather than settle the rhythm.
Djouahra has already found Barbero in the box, and Fukui gives Arouca a second runner when Nacional crowd the centre. Nacional's compact shape held Braga out on the scoreboard but still allowed repeated box shots; its Song-to-Baeza outlet produced little sustained attack after the goal. Arouca's main attackers played the last league match, while Rukavina's suspension removes a later option rather than that starting route. I expect Arouca to keep returning to the box through the wide channels, so I'm siding with an Arouca win.
Elche can move the ball through Valera and Cepeda, while Valencia can release Guerra, Raba and Rioja into the space behind Elche's advance. Elche needed Dituro's saves and a Chust clearance when Villarreal pressured its build-up, and two early penalties shaped its Rayo win. Niño's back issue leaves Elche's central finish unsettled; Valencia's reported squad returns are not assumed to be full-match starters, but its current wide outlets remain. Valencia have a route back after an Elche opening through those deliveries and direct passes, so I'm siding with Valencia to avoid defeat.
