Alaves are a low-possession home side that wins through crosses and a back five, not through volume. Malaga keep the ball but create very little away from home, and this week they lost the attackers who produced their recent goals. Both coaches are under pressure and both have reasons to start carefully. Everything points to a tight, mid-tempo game with few clear chances.
Quique Sanchez Flores sets Alaves up in a 5-3-2 and plays direct to Boye, with Angel Perez back from suspension to supply the crosses. At home they usually create only around one expected goal a game. The 5-2 against Osasuna came from modest chances and was a finishing night, not their normal level. With a lead, Quique protects it: they beat Villarreal 1-0 with a quarter of the ball.
Malaga's two away games I read were 0-1 at Getafe and 1-1 at Celta, with about half an expected goal created in each. Their heavy defeats came at home against attacking sides, which is a different setting from this one. Now Pablo Martinez, who scored and assisted last weekend, Joaquin Munoz and Lobete are all out. That leaves Nino and Chupete up front with little support, and Funes has hinted at three centre-backs for the first time.
The main danger is Alaves' crosses into a crowded Malaga box. If Alaves go ahead, they tend to sit, and Malaga's bench has little quality to chase with. A one-goal game or a low draw is the most natural outcome.
That's why I'm on the low-scoring side in this match.
