In both matches the home side's coach-level routes survive the names they've lost, while the visitors' scoring routes have narrowed. In Paris, PSG's press and midfield runners are all available against a Lyon team that has lost most of its recent goal involvement. In Dammam, Qadsiah's possession game meets an Al-Sadd midfield screen that every competent opponent has played through since Lucescu took over. Each match has a real counter route for the visitors, but less weight sits behind it.
PSG under Luis Enrique win the same way whoever plays up front: they press the build-up, keep the ball and score through many players. Doue, Akliouche, Vitinha and Fabian Ruiz have all scored recently, and set pieces add more. They've won seven in a row while creating plenty, including games without Dembele or Kvaratskhelia.
Lyon defend well and attack mainly through Athekame's crosses from the right and Nuamah's running. That right-side route meets PSG's reshaped left, with Nuno Mendes out, and it's the clearest opening Lyon have. But Sulc, Nakamura and Openda, who scored or created most of Lyon's other goals, are all out. Their away output against compact or pressing hosts has been low.
If PSG score first, Lyon must open up, and PSG's second halves have been big. That's why I'm siding with PSG to win.
Qadsiah under Rodgers are a settled possession side, creating around two expected goals a game through Reijnders and Al Juwayr into Retegui and Quinones. Al-Sadd have dangerous attackers in Afif and Firmino and score freely against weak Qatari sides. Against good teams they've been out-shot heavily: 22 shots conceded to Duhail, 17 to Hilal, three goals at Esteghlal. And no goal in two continental games against strong opposition.
Qadsiah's back three is thinned by reported absences, and Al-Shahrani already stepped in during their last game, so that's where Al-Sadd will aim their counters. Qadsiah's midfield and possession routes stay in place, though, and Al-Sadd, with no points, can't just sit back. That's why I'm siding with Qadsiah at home.
