Ajax's renewed high pressure meets an Atalanta defence short of its usual central cover. The first pass out of the away half and the next loose ball should decide who controls the box. Atalanta can still escape through De Ketelaere and attack behind Ajax's wide players. Both sides have enough attacking changes to make the second phase as lively as the first.
Ajax showed against Groningen that their press can create repeat entries rather than a single opening chance. Brandt and the wide runners can reach the striker, and blocked efforts can become another attack against an improvised central pairing. Atalanta's Milan comeback showed the quality of their late wide supply, but their first-half exit under pressure was difficult.
Blind and Berghuis have trained but are out of Ajax's squad, so Baas and other current receivers carry more of the first-pass work. Atalanta's travelling group omitted Kolašinac after his early Milan injury along with Hien, Kossounou and Scalvini, leaving Kristensen as the fit senior central defender. Ajax's current press and second-ball runs are well placed to keep that centre under pressure. That's why I'm siding with Ajax at home.
