[2026-27 Eredivisie] AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen Preview Kick-off: Nov 8, 15:45 (UTC)
Neither side has won in its last 4 games, but those results did not come from a lack of chances. AZ's early pressing and Groningen's build-up from the back are the first battle to watch.
1. Match overview and team news
AZ Alkmaar are 5th with 6 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 11 games. All 6 wins came in the first 7 games, and they have scored only 2 goals in the 4 league games since. Three of those games were against Feyenoord, Twente and Ajax. Against Ajax they took 19 shots, but all 5 on target were saved by the keeper. Against Juventus they created 2.10 xG, yet 11 shots were blocked. The Twente game was different. Jordy Clasie said Twente defended so deep that it was hard to find a free player (Voetbalprimeur). The recent slump comes from poor finishing, and also from games against compact defences where the chances dried up.
Head coach Leeroy Echteld said after the Juventus game that the aggression in their pressing has to show from the first minute (AZ Alkmaar club website, Nov 6). But a near first-choice side played in that game, and the rest before this match is two days (RTV Noord, Nov 6). Weslley Patati missed the Juventus squad through injury, but AZ still created chances in a game where Ro-Zangelo Daal and Calvin Stengs played. Luis Schouten was substituted with an injury during that game, and whether he plays today could change the make-up of the back line.
Groningen are 8th. In the games without a win they still had 20 shots against Sparta Rotterdam, and Brynjólfur Willumsson scored from a corner and on the counter against NEC Nijmegen. However, against Sparta they conceded 2 goals from mistakes playing out from the back, and in the cup game against FC Emmen they conceded 2 on the counter while attacking. Coach Dick Lukkien said the defensive pairings had changed too often (RTV Noord, Nov 6). David van der Werff's availability is uncertain, and it is also unclear whether the returning defenders can all last 90 minutes (RTV Noord, quoted by FCG fans, Nov 7). Groningen travel after a week off.
2. Matchup analysis
AZ's press goes straight at the way Groningen move up the pitch from the back. In recent games Marco Rente lost the ball, and Hans Hateboer and keeper Etienne Vaessen got in each other's way while clearing it. If AZ win the ball high, they can shoot before the defence is set. That is a different kind of chance from the recent games, where shots kept getting blocked by organised defences. If Groningen get past the first press, it flips. Tom van Bergen and Jacob Ondrejka can run in behind the players AZ push forward.
The second battle is AZ's defending after losing the ball in attack against Groningen's quick breaks. Against NEC, Groningen won the ball and Willumsson finished a Van Bergen cross, and against Sparta, Van Bergen scored from a Hateboer through ball. AZ conceded on the counter against Twente, and against Juventus they conceded after Mees de Wit lost the ball. Groningen also use Willumsson's header at corners. AZ conceded against Ajax in an aerial duel on a cross from the left, so Groningen's attack is not limited to the moments just after winning the ball. But if Groningen go ahead and sit back, they will face long spells of pressure from the opposition's substitutes, as they did against NEC, when they failed to hold a 2-goal lead.
3. Final verdict and conclusion
We expect AZ to force mistakes from Groningen at the back with their early press, then use their substitutes after the break to pull away and win by two goals or more. Groningen are likely to score as well, through runs in behind or set pieces. Groningen scored in all of their league games against the top 4 sides, but conceded 15 goals alongside 7 scored. With attacking routes available again today, we also have to factor in the space they leave when they push forward after conceding. AZ can use Clasie, Elias Dijkstra, Kees Smit and Ayoub Oufkir in the second half, as they played only around 30 minutes against Juventus.
The market rates a home win for AZ highly and leans slightly towards fewer goals. The recent 2 goals in 4 league games is hard to apply as is, because Groningen are not a side that defends deep and waits. They have lost the ball while building from the back, and they gave up plenty of chances even to the top sides. That said, if AZ cannot keep up their pressing intensity from the start because of the two days' rest, Groningen will have more time to get past the press with their first pass and attack the space behind the defence.
[Final verdict by market, based on Betman odds] Full-time result: Home win. Groningen's build-up from the back runs straight into the press, so AZ get the better chances. Groningen sit back even when they lead, which makes it hard for them to protect an advantage. Handicap -1: Home win. Groningen lost all 6 games in which they trailed at half-time, and against FC Emmen, when they added attackers while chasing the game, they conceded again on the counter. Over/Under 3.5: Over. Groningen's runs in behind and set pieces can exploit AZ's weakness against aerial balls and counters, and the chances for both sides come right after possession changes.
