[26-27 French Ligue 1] Stade Rennais vs RC Strasbourg Analysis Preview Kick-off: October 25, 16:15 UTC
Stade Rennais and RC Strasbourg meet in Matchday 8 of Ligue 1 at Roazhon Park at 16:15 UTC on October 25. Rennes sit a point off the lead and want to stay in the title race at home. Strasbourg sit a point off the relegation playoff spot and need to end a three-game losing run. Rennes' short turnaround after a European away trip and Strasbourg's full week of preparation both bear on this game.
1. Match overview and current form
In the data centre's October 25 table, Rennes are 6th after 7 games with 4 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, 13 points. They have scored a league-high 15 goals but conceded 14. Strasbourg are 14th with 2 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses, 7 points, with 12 goals scored and 15 conceded. Rennes are unbeaten in their 4 league home games, and Strasbourg have both scored and conceded in each of their 4 away games.
League record after 7 games Position and points: Rennes 6th, 13 points / Strasbourg 14th, 7 points Goals scored and conceded: Rennes 15 and 14 / Strasbourg 12 and 15 Record at this venue: Rennes at home, 4 games, 3 wins 1 draw / Strasbourg away, 4 games, 1 win 3 losses
Rennes' recent results have varied by venue and opponent. They lost away at Lyon and Paris FC, conceding 4 goals in each. They had plenty of the ball in both games, but the goals came from turnovers in midfield or while building from the back. At home they beat AJ Auxerre 4-1 and OFI Crete 2-1. Against Auxerre it was still 2-1 at 90 minutes, and against OFI Crete they equalised in the 76th minute and scored the winner in the 90th. So even with plenty of shots at home, some games were settled late.
Strasbourg won 6-2 away at Troyes, then drew with Monaco and lost in a row to Paris FC, Nice and Paris Saint-Germain. They scored first against Nice and PSG and were still overturned in the second half. Against Monaco they also led before conceding an equaliser. They can get the opening goal, but they have not held a lead to the end. Against PSG in particular, they conceded from a corner and a cross in the second half. We expect Rennes to attack down the flanks, so that is an important area again today.
6 of Strasbourg's 8 away goals came at Troyes. In the 5 league games where the data centre has expected goals, the 4 games other than Troyes add up to 2.78 xG. Marseille and Lens have no such figures, so we cannot treat this as the team's attacking level for the whole season. Still, their recent away scoring does not suggest they create many chances every week. At Nice they had 55% possession but only 0.55 xG and no big chances. Against PSG, on the other hand, they created several chances by moving forward right after winning the ball. This team depends less on how much of the ball it has than on where it wins it and attacks from.
Rennes play at home about 72 hours after their 2-2 draw away at Juventus in the Europa League on October 23. Coach Franck Haise said he will check recovery before deciding one or two places in the starting XI. Strasbourg have prepared only for this game since the PSG match on October 18. In last season's meeting, Strasbourg carried the burden of absentees and European fixtures, but this time Rennes are the ones playing twice in a short span. That is why we find it hard to carry Rennes' three straight wins in the fixture over to today's margin.
The biggest change in the line-ups is Rennes missing Esteban Lepaul. He has a left ankle injury, scored 7 goals in 7 league games and had 4 goals in two games against Strasbourg last season. Boulaye Dia is expected to lead the line. Dia scored a penalty against Juventus and scored twice in stoppage time as a substitute against AJ Auxerre. However, in the start against Lyon he was said to have struggled to hold the ball up against the opposing centre-backs. Lepaul's absence affects finishing inside the box and also the way Dia was brought on late in games.
Strasbourg are without Ismael Doukouré, Sebastian Nanasi, Fabio Baldé, Deivid Washington and Joaquin Panichelli. The expected XI changes only one place, on the left of the attack, from the PSG game, but the options off the bench are fewer. Zaylan Mitchell and Karim Coulibaly are expected in the middle with Doukouré out. Martial Godo can play, but coach Hugo Oliveira said he is not fully fit. That could show if Strasbourg need to add attackers or reinforce the flanks late on.
2. Matchup analysis
Haise mostly uses a 4-3-3 but played a 3-5-2 for the first time against Juventus. Both Rennes goals started from crosses or shots by left wing-back Mahamadou Nagida. For the equaliser, Nagida's delivery was headed across by Bryan Reynolds on the far side and Musa Tamari finished. If Haise keeps this shape, Rennes can put three in midfield, push both wing-backs high and send the ball into Strasbourg's box. That is the evidence from a single game against Juventus, though, and Oliveira also watched that match to prepare.
Rennes' right-sided attack tests Strasbourg's left side of defence. Reynolds has 3 assists this season, the most at Rennes. Oso, who will face him, was said to have struggled to handle Jonathan Clauss against Nice. Against PSG, Strasbourg also failed to clear a cross from the right and conceded the go-ahead goal. If Nagida's left-sided crosses to Reynolds or Tamari at the far post come again, Oso and the centre-backs will have to deal with the aerial ball and then the second ball. That is why we think Rennes can create chances from the flanks even without Lepaul. Who finishes them is a separate question.
The attack can also go the other way down Rennes' left. If Nagida is up the pitch and loses the ball, Strasbourg's Jemsi Yassin can run into the space behind him. Yassin has started all 7 league games this season with 2 goals and 2 assists. In the PSG game, Genesis Antwi won the ball, Yassin took it on and Giovanni Reyna finished for the opener. In the games where Rennes conceded heavily away, the opponent also moved forward right after a turnover in Rennes' own half. How quickly Rennes' centre-backs and midfielders react to a lost ball while Nagida joins the attack will decide how many chances Strasbourg get.
Against strong sides such as Monaco and PSG, Oliveira dropped the defensive block and looked for transitions. If Strasbourg sit deep again, Rennes can keep the ball for long spells, but the weakness they showed against heavy pressing on their build-up gets fewer chances to be exploited. Instead, Rennes have to finish against a packed defence. They scored once from 20 shots against Marseille and had 23 shots without scoring away at Sturm Graz. If Strasbourg press higher, they can aim at Rennes' turnovers, but that also leaves space behind their advanced defenders for Nagida and Reynolds to receive the ball.
In the second half, the pressure on the two sides shows up in different ways. Strasbourg conceded 11 of their 15 league goals after the break, and they conceded even when ahead against Monaco, Nice and PSG. Rennes have more forwards to bring on, but Nagida and Reynolds, who covered the whole flank against Juventus, have little recovery time before this game. If Rennes' wing-backs can keep going forward and back in the second half, they can keep testing Strasbourg's defence. If their work rate drops, Yassin's counter-attacks could become more dangerous. If the starting shape changes to a 4-3-3, both the wing-backs' forward runs and the space behind them will differ from the Juventus game.
3. Final verdict and conclusion
We expect Rennes to hold the ball for long spells and start attacks from the flanks, and Strasbourg to answer with counters through Yassin and Reyna. Our case for a Rennes win rests on their wide play and second-half squad use, not on the gap in the table. The scoring route Nagida and Reynolds opened against Juventus targets a defence that has recently struggled with crosses. Strasbourg conceded in the second half even in games where they scored first, and this time they also have few substitutes to shore up the defence. That said, Rennes without Lepaul must give the job of turning chances into goals to someone else, and the short recovery time may lead them to ease off once ahead.
Our view on the result is a Rennes win, similar to the market. Where we differ is the margin. The market expects a bigger gap, based on Rennes' home form and the large margin in last season's meeting. But Lepaul, who scored a large share of the goals then, is out, and the fixture burden that weighed on last season's game now sits with Rennes. Even if Rennes go ahead, Strasbourg still have routes back through Yassin's counter-attacks and set pieces.
Our predicted score is Rennes 2-1 (Rennes as the home side). The likeliest pattern is that Rennes score twice by attacking Strasbourg's box with crosses and corners, and Strasbourg score once from a counter into the space behind Nagida or from a set piece. Rennes keep their wide attacking routes despite the congested schedule, while Strasbourg carry their second-half goals conceded and limited bench options, so we think a draw is hard for them to reach. If Strasbourg turn a Rennes turnover into the opener in the first half, and the Mitchell and Coulibaly pairing deals with every cross and corner, this forecast could change to a draw or an away win.
