[26-27 UEL Europa League] Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Preview and Analysis Kick-off: 16 October, 16:45 UTC
Lech Poznań host Bayer 04 Leverkusen at Enea Stadion in Poznań on 16 October at 01:45 Korea time. It is the second round of the UEFA Europa League league phase and the sides’ first competitive meeting. Lech need points at home after opening with a 0-4 defeat, while Leverkusen began with a 2-0 win and now face a test of their away defence.
1. Match overview and team form
Two-time reigning Polish champions Lech Poznań sit second in the Ekstraklasa after winning 7, drawing 1 and losing 1 of their first 9 matches. They are 3 points behind leaders Górnik Zabrze, having played a game fewer. They remain competitive at home, but lost 0-4 away to Crystal Palace in their Europa League opener. Lech created chances early on, but conceded after losing the ball from a throw-in near their own penalty area. They also conceded from a corner and a penalty. That result shows why we need to distinguish their ability to keep attacking at home from their ability to avoid mistakes against strong opponents.
Leverkusen earned 10 points from their first 5 Bundesliga matches. Since appointing Carles Martinez and changing the squad and basic formation, they have scored at least 2 goals in each of their 7 competitive matches this season. They beat NK Celje 2-0 at home in their Europa League opener, then won 4-3 away to Mainz. At Mainz, though, they let a 2-0 lead slip before going 2 goals ahead again, and conceded once more just before the final whistle. The result highlighted both their attacking output and their difficulty protecting leads away from home.
Key details Europa League opener: Lech Poznań lost 0-4 away to Crystal Palace; Bayer 04 Leverkusen beat NK Celje 2-0 at home Last competitive match: Lech Poznań won 4-1 away to Śląsk Wrocław; Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 4-3 away to Mainz Key absences: Lech Poznań, Murawski suspended, Sayyadmanesh and Douglas among the injured, reports say Rodríguez will not start; Bayer 04 Leverkusen, Kofane and Ben Seghir among the injured, Hofmann and Boniface omitted from the registered squad
Lech are unlikely to field the same lineup that produced their recent 4-1 win. Midfielder Radosław Murawski, who wins the ball back in midfield, is suspended after his red card against Crystal Palace. Alireza Sayyadmanesh is unavailable through injury, while reports say Pablo Rodríguez, who has 6 goals and 5 assists in 17 competitive appearances this season, will be left out of the starting lineup by the coach. He could still make the bench. Centre-back Barry Douglas is also out with a fractured rib, so Bartosz Skrzypczak or Alex Douglas Yegbe is expected to partner Antonio Milić.
Coach Niels Frederiksen said Lech would keep their usual approach of possession and playing forward, but would need to spend time defending deep against Leverkusen. Reports of his comments differ on how long Lech will press high. Filip Jagiełło, Gustav Berggren and Antoni Kozubal are expected in midfield. Whether that trio can play out reliably against Leverkusen’s press will be an early test.
Martinez has shifted Leverkusen from their old back three to a 4-2-3-1. One full-back pushes high, while Aleix García handles switches of play and long passes in midfield. Patrik Schick runs in behind from the centre, and Ibrahim Maza and the wide forwards contribute to the press and quick attacks. Most of the regular league starters are available. Schick’s usual alternative, Kofane, is injured, while Jonas Hofmann is not registered for the Europa League. If the match stays tight into the second half, Leverkusen will have fewer options to change their attack by bringing on another centre-forward.
Lech have won 7 of their 9 home matches in all competitions this season, and around 40,000 fans are expected for this game. That home record includes domestic fixtures and big wins in European qualifying, though, and they have lost 4 of their last 6 Europa League home matches in the main competition. Leverkusen, meanwhile, have won all 3 of their home matches this season without conceding, but have let in 8 goals across 3 Bundesliga away games. Neither side can count on its venue record alone to guarantee a strong defensive performance here.
This is the teams’ first competitive meeting. Lech have drawn 2 and lost 3 of their 5 European matches against German sides, while Leverkusen have won all 4 of their matches against Polish teams. Leverkusen’s record comes from before Martinez’s appointment and tactical changes, though. The current schedule offers a more direct guide. Both teams last played on 10 October and return to league action 3 days after this match. Leverkusen’s next opponent is Bundesliga leaders SC Freiburg. Martinez said he would pick the strongest available lineup for this game, while also acknowledging the need to manage the squad. The schedule may have more impact on when he makes changes during the match than on the starting lineup.
2. Match-up analysis
Leverkusen will target Lech’s first pass. Against Crystal Palace, Lech repeatedly tried slow passes through the middle under pressure, and one poor decision at the back led to the opening goal. Leverkusen press passing lanes high up the pitch through Schick and Maza, then look to Diaby and Moreira to break forward after winning the ball in midfield. They also scored against Mainz after a midfield turnover led to an attack from those two players. With Murawski missing, if Lech’s new midfield cannot keep the ball, the hosts may have to defend in their own half before they can even begin an attack.
Frederiksen has a way to counter that pressure. Instead of insisting on short passes through the middle, Lech can play long to Ishak and reduce the risk of losing the ball in their own half. The reverse can also happen when Lech choose to press high. Leverkusen conceded twice within the opening 61 seconds away to Elversberg after coming under a high press, with one goal starting from a passing error by centre-back Edmond Tapsoba. There is no evidence that the same kind of mistake has kept recurring since that match, though. It is also unclear where and how intensely Lech will press.
Leverkusen left-back Alejandro Gutiérrez’s forward runs could create chances for both sides. When Gutiérrez pushes high, Leverkusen can deliver crosses from that flank. Against RB Leipzig, his left-wing cross found Schick running in behind the centre-backs for the opening goal. But if Leverkusen lose possession, they could leave too few players covering the space behind Gutiérrez. Lech right-back João Pereira has 3 assists this season, and either Velde or Daniel Håkans, who could come on later, can drive forward down that side.
That threat also carries a defensive risk. If Pereira pushes up to attack the space behind Gutiérrez and Lech lose the ball, Leverkusen’s left winger and Gutiérrez can attack the space behind Pereira. Lech are better placed to exploit that flank by winning the ball in a deeper position and sending it quickly to the right than by building a long spell of possession. That is why the deeper defensive approach Frederiksen has described could also lead to chances for Lech.
Set pieces offer Leverkusen a clear route to goal. Their last 4 goals in European competition have all come from corners. Both goals against NK Celje also came from corners. Lech conceded from a corner against Crystal Palace, then let in 2 second-half goals from a corner and a cross against Górnik Zabrze. Skrzypczak and Jagiełło, who were criticised for their positioning in that match, are both likely to start here. Murawski’s absence will change who is assigned to aerial duels, but there is no basis to assume that will improve Lech’s defending.
Lech can also test Leverkusen’s set-piece defence. Leverkusen lost track of an opposing forward while defending a corner away to Augsburg, and conceded from a loose ball after a corner against Mainz. Ishak could be the focal point of Lech’s attack. Lech, though, have fewer convincing examples of scoring from set pieces than Leverkusen. Both teams having a weakness in this area does not mean their chances of scoring from it are equal.
What happens after the first goal matters too. If Leverkusen score first, Lech will have more reason to push forward as they chase points, leaving Leverkusen openings to win the ball in midfield and switch play for a second goal. After conceding first against Crystal Palace, Lech fell further behind through a corner and a penalty before half-time. Leverkusen have also failed to hold 1-0 leads against Augsburg and 2-0 leads against Mainz. If Lech keep it to a one-goal game into the middle of the second half, attacks from Velde or Håkans could put Leverkusen’s away defence under pressure again.
3. Final verdict and prediction
We expect Leverkusen to take the lead, with Lech chasing the game. Leverkusen’s corners target a type of situation Lech have repeatedly struggled to defend this season. Their high press will test a new Lech midfield without Murawski. If Lech push forward after conceding, Gutiérrez’s crosses and quick attacks after a midfield turnover give Leverkusen another way to score. Lech have the pace to attack the space behind Leverkusen’s left-back, but Rodríguez may not start and Sayyadmanesh is injured, leaving them with fewer options in the attacking midfield line.
The market leans towards Leverkusen, based on their run of high-scoring results, Lech’s 0-4 defeat and the reported absences. We agree on the likely winner. The difference is the expected number of goals. The market gives more weight to a lower-scoring game, but Leverkusen’s corners and press directly test Lech’s current defensive and midfield setup, while Lech have a route to a consolation goal against Leverkusen’s away defence. If Leverkusen are in front and rotate players with their league match 3 days away, Lech could also reduce the deficit in the second half.
Our predicted score is 3-1 to Leverkusen. They get in front through a set piece and a midfield turnover, then exploit the space behind Lech as the hosts push forward to chase the game. Lech pull one back after switching play out wide in the second half, but we do not expect them to turn the result around. This prediction depends on Leverkusen’s press creating chances through Lech’s midfield. If Lech use long passes to bypass the press and hold firm at corners, Leverkusen’s goal tally and the final margin could be lower than we expect.
