[2026 UEFA Nations League] Scotland vs Slovenia: Match Preview Kick-off: October 7, 03:45 KST
Scotland and Slovenia meet at Hampden Park in Glasgow at 03:45 KST on October 7 for their fourth match in UEFA Nations League League B, Group 1. Both teams have four points, with Slovenia second on goal difference. Scotland need a win to move above them. After their 0-0 draw in Ljubljana 11 days ago, the key question is what each side has changed ahead of this rematch.
1. Match overview and team form
Scotland drew away to Slovenia, lost 3-0 at home to Switzerland, then won 2-0 away to North Macedonia. Slovenia drew with Scotland, beat North Macedonia 2-0, then lost 2-1 away to Switzerland. Both teams have one win, one draw and one loss from three matches. With Switzerland top on nine points, this meeting will have a direct impact on the race for second. Scotland manager Sebastian Pochettino has stressed the need to score and win at home. Slovenia manager Boštjan Cesar has also acknowledged the importance of the match while keeping the remaining group fixtures in mind.
Recent results alone do not tell the full story of either attack. Scotland had 24 shots against North Macedonia, but the goals came from a long-range effort by Kieran Bowie and a John McGinn penalty. In September's meeting with Slovenia, they had 17 shots and five on target but could not beat Jan Oblak. Scotland showed they can create chances, though turning them into goals against a side with five defenders protecting the box remains a challenge. Ending their scoreless run against North Macedonia mattered, but their opponents are bottom of the group after losing all three matches.
Slovenia also lost their latest match, away to Switzerland, but showed one clear route to goal. They broke forward straight after defending a corner, and Žan Vipotnik scored the opener about two minutes later. Slovenia conceded from a corner in the 10th minute, then fell behind before half-time. They had to wait until the 55th minute to score against North Macedonia. Cesar's first three competitive matches have brought three goals and two conceded, too small a sample to say the attack has clearly improved. Still, Vipotnik on the counter, Danijel Šturm advancing down the left and substitute scorer Aljoša Matko have all shown they can contribute going forward.
Changes to the expected line-ups could shape the result. Scotland are without Scott McKenna, who is suspended after being sent off against North Macedonia. The centre-back started all three matches under Pochettino and was a key aerial presence at both ends on set pieces. Jack Hendry is expected to replace him after serving his suspension, though some projected line-ups instead name Luke Graham. McGinn is likely to lead the attack again, with Bowie and Oliver McBurnie also in line to start. Scott McTominay, Kieran Tierney, Che Adams and Lawrence Shankland have not returned to the squad.
Team Scotland: Key absences: McKenna suspended; McTominay, Tierney and Adams unavailable. Likely change: Hendry or Graham to start at centre-back. Slovenia: Key absences: Benjamin Šeško, Andraž Šporar and Benjamin Verbič unavailable. Likely change: Vipotnik to lead the line.
Šporar, who started the September meeting and found chances inside the box, is missing for Slovenia. Šeško and Verbič are also absent from this away trip. Vipotnik is most dangerous when he runs into the space behind a high defensive line, rather than waiting in the box as Šporar does. Substitute striker Žan Celar has played 106 minutes across three appearances for the national team this season. Cesar will need a way to keep the counter-attacking threat alive after Vipotnik tires.
The managers also set their teams up differently. Pochettino uses a high back three and pushes both wing-backs forward. Without the ball, Cesar drops his wide players into a line of five. In possession, he moves the wing-backs inside to form a 3-4-3. Scotland's last meeting with Slovenia with 11 players on the pitch ended 0-0. They played almost 80 minutes with 10 men in the 3-0 home loss to Switzerland after an 11th-minute red card. That result is not a reliable measure of Scotland's home form under Pochettino.
Scotland lead the all-time head-to-head with two wins and four draws, but the only meeting in the past five years was the 0-0 on September 26. Earlier results came under different managers and with different squads. This is the fourth match in 11 days for both teams, and their next fixtures are in November. Around kick-off, the forecast for Hampden is 12.0°C, with a 0% chance of rain and winds of 7.2 km/h. Minutes played and the demands of each match are likely to affect fitness more than the weather.
2. Match-up analysis
The split between the two halves matters more than the 0-0 scoreline from September. In the first half, Scotland struggled to press Slovenia's shape: five defenders when out of possession, then the wing-backs moving inside when they had the ball. Slovenia attacked the space behind Scotland's high line, and Šporar had a goal ruled out for offside. A header from Drkusić, set up by Janža's corner, hit the post. After Pochettino adjusted Scotland's pressing positions at half-time, they had 14 shots in the second half while Slovenia managed just one. Scotland know what to expect from Slovenia's shape this time, but their chances in that second half did not bring a goal.
On the flanks, the moments when Scotland win the ball will matter. Right wing-back Ben Gannon-Doak, who is expected to start, took on defenders one-on-one repeatedly against North Macedonia. Janža is likely to face him on Slovenia's left. If Slovenia lose the ball while Janža has moved inside in possession, Gannon-Doak can attack the space he leaves out wide. On the other side, Andrew Robertson pushes high, while Ferguson and McGinn look to win the ball further forward and keep the attack moving. As Cesar has suggested, Slovenia may have more possession, which could also create more of these transition opportunities for Scotland.
If Slovenia sit in a back five and concede possession, Scotland will need other ways to break them down. Repeated crosses mean facing strong aerial defenders in Jaka Bijol and Drkusić. Their options improve if McBurnie drops in to win headers, McGinn runs into the box or Bowie moves between the defenders. Gannon-Doak's runs also need to find McGinn or Bowie with the final pass to create a shot. Oblak made five saves in September. More time on the ball and a higher shot count will not guarantee Scotland a goal.
At the other end, Vipotnik will look to run in behind Scotland's back three. If Scotland push their wing-backs up and lose the ball while pressing high, Vipotnik could receive the first pass forward from Šturm or Matko. Slovenia's opener against Switzerland came from exactly that kind of move, with Matko assisting after a corner and Vipotnik finishing quickly. Ferguson and McGinn will need to stop that first pass as soon as Scotland lose the ball. If it gets through, the central defence, now without McKenna, must deal with Vipotnik's movement in open space. Hendry was sent off against Switzerland after fouling when Ndoye ran in behind.
Set pieces are another important route to goal for Slovenia. In September, they had more corners than Scotland despite just 35% possession, and Drkusić met Janža's delivery with a header that hit the post. With McKenna missing, Scotland lose a defender who handled aerial duties in those situations. Slovenia also conceded an equaliser against Switzerland through an own goal by Janža while defending a corner. If Scotland sustain attacks in the opposition half as they did against North Macedonia, Slovenia's defence will have to keep dealing with aerial balls.
How each team manages the later stages will also matter. After the September meeting, Oblak said Slovenia's players were struggling to hold on from the 50th minute. That coincided with the point when Pochettino's half-time adjustment began to pay off. Cesar has generally made most of his substitutions after the 60th minute. This time, Pochettino knows how Slovenia set up, so Scotland could make their pressure count earlier. Both teams are playing their fourth match of this international window, though, so we cannot assume Slovenia will tire at the same point again.
The scoreline will shape each team's choices. If Scotland score first, Slovenia lose the option of protecting second place with a draw and will need to attack more. Their wing-backs may push forward more often, giving Scotland extra chances down the flanks. Against North Macedonia, though, Pochettino responded to taking the lead by replacing Gannon-Doak with defender Aaron Hickey. If Scotland reduce their attacking numbers after going ahead, Slovenia will have time to chase an equaliser from a set piece. If Slovenia score first, Scotland will spend more time attacking, but as in September, a high shot count does not guarantee a goal. If it remains 0-0 into the second half, Scotland's need for a win should send them forward, while Slovenia look to counter into the space they leave behind.
3. Verdict and prediction
We expect Scotland to spend more time attacking in the opposition half. Pochettino knows the Slovenia shape that caught his side out in the first half of their September meeting. Scotland can win the ball through Ferguson, Gilmour and McGinn, then move forward down the flanks and through the second line. They should be able to create chances, even if Slovenia manage the pressure deep into the match and both teams feel the strain of a fourth game in 11 days. Scotland failed to beat Oblak in the last meeting, though, and their two goals against North Macedonia came from a long-range shot and a penalty. Attacking superiority alone may not be enough to win.
The market leans towards Scotland, citing home advantage, their ranking, their World Cup experience and their shot advantage in the second half of the last meeting. But McKenna is missing from Scotland's central defence. That directly affects Slovenia's routes to goal: Vipotnik running in behind and Bijol or Drkusić attacking Janža's deliveries. Slovenia are weakened by their attacking absences, but we rate their chances of exploiting Scotland's high line more highly than the market does.
Our score prediction is Scotland 1-1 Slovenia. We expect Slovenia to score once on the counter or from a set piece, with Scotland finding an equaliser through a move down the flank or McGinn's late run into the box as Slovenia tire. If the scores are level, Slovenia can keep their five-man defence and settle for the draw that protects second place, leaving Scotland to find a way past Oblak again. Our view would change if Scotland repeatedly stop Slovenia's first pass on the counter and their replacement centre-back also deals with the aerial threat from set pieces. That would cut off Slovenia's scoring routes and make a one-goal Scotland win possible.
