[2026 UEFA Nations League] Greece vs Germany Preview and Analysis Kick-off: October 5, 03:45 KST
Greece and Germany meet at Toumba Stadium in Thessaloniki at 03:45 KST on October 5 for their fourth League A, Group 2 match in the UEFA Nations League. Greece won 1-0 away to Germany seven days ago. If the group leaders win at home too, they will move six points clear of Germany and secure the head-to-head advantage. Germany need to put right what went wrong in their first defeat.
1. Match overview and team form
After three matches, Greece have 7 points from 2 wins and a draw, while Germany have 4 points from 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss. The Netherlands sit between them on 5 points. Greece can preserve their lead over Germany and their head-to-head edge even with a draw. If Germany lose, they cannot finish above Greece even by winning their remaining two matches. With the stakes so different, Germany will have more reason to commit players forward as the game goes on.
Teams Greece: 2 wins and 1 draw in 3 group-stage matches, 7 points / Last match: 2-2 at home against the Netherlands Germany: 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss in 3 group-stage matches, 4 points / Last match: 2-0 home win over Serbia
Greece’s unbeaten run has come through more than one approach. Away to Serbia, they conceded after four minutes, then took control of the ball and attacked, scoring an equaliser in the 74th minute and a winner in stoppage time to win 2-1. In Germany, they defended deep in front of their penalty area and scored in the second half. Against the Netherlands, they went 2-0 up before half-time by using a long pass from their goalkeeper and a mistake at the back. Ivan Jovanovic has adjusted where his team start attacks and how deep they defend to suit the opponent and the score.
The finish to the Netherlands match could shape this one too. Greece managed just one shot in the second half and conceded twice in a 2-2 draw. The Netherlands made three half-time substitutions and pushed their defensive line higher to press. Greece could send long balls forward, but struggled to keep possession. Jovanovic pointed to fatigue and small mistakes. The Netherlands’ tactical change and Greece’s drop in energy both played a part in the second-half swing.
Under Jurgen Klopp, Germany drew 1-1 with the Netherlands, lost 0-1 to Greece and then beat Serbia 2-0. They recorded 32 shots against Serbia, including 21 from inside the penalty area. Serbia, though, are bottom of the group after losing all three matches and managed only one shot in that game. In the first meeting with Greece, Germany had the ball while the entire Greek back line sat deep. There is little reason to expect Germany to reproduce their attacking volume against Serbia in this match.
In that first meeting, Germany had 75% possession and 15 shots, but only 7 shots from inside the box. Konstantinos Tzolakis saved all 5 shots on target. Greece had just 25% possession, but 5 of their 8 shots came from inside the penalty area. Dimitrios Kourbelis’ 74th-minute winner took a deflection off a German player. The score alone does not tell the full story of either attack, but Greece’s defensive approach, which limited Germany’s box entries, deserves another look.
The squads and workload are different this time. Klopp split 44 players into two squads, with one group playing the first two matches and the other the last two. Most of Germany’s likely starters have started only once during this camp, against Serbia. For Greece, Tzolakis, Konstantinos Mavropanos, Panagiotis Retsos, Konstantinos Tsimikas, Konstantinos Karetsas and Vangelis Pavlidis all started the first three matches. If they start again, this will be their fourth match in 10 days. Jovanovic has also acknowledged that his players are tired and Germany are fresher.
Greece will be without Christos Tzolis, who picked up a muscle injury against the Netherlands. Tzolis scored the equaliser against Serbia and carried the ball inside from the left in the move that led to the winner against Germany. Potential replacement Giorgos Masouras helped Fotis Ioannidis score the opener against the Netherlands by winning a long ball in the air, then scored himself after intercepting a pass. Greece still have counter-attacking options, but they could miss some of Tzolis’ direct dribbling progress.
Germany will also field a different side from the first meeting. Klopp has said Jonas Urbig will start in goal and Aleksandar Pavlovic will play. Florian Wirtz and Tom Bischof are also in the projected starting lineup. Joshua Kimmich is out as part of a planned rotation, while Nico Schlotterbeck, Kai Havertz and Jamal Musiala are unavailable. Havertz, Musiala and Schlotterbeck did not play in the first match against Greece either. The key question is how the new midfield and defensive combinations perform, rather than the number of absentees.
The teams’ recent meetings were Germany’s 2-1 friendly win in 2024 and Greece’s 1-0 win last month. The 2024 match featured different coaches and squads. Germany’s starting lineup last month also differed considerably from the one expected here. Greece’s defensive approach offers useful reference points, but Germany’s attack being contained then does not mean the same will happen again. Both teams played their last match on the same day, and rain and strong winds are not forecast around kick-off.
2. Matchup analysis
Germany are likely to have the ball for long spells again. In the first match, Greece’s defenders and midfielders stayed close together, making it hard for Germany to receive the ball centrally. Germany often finished attacks with crosses from wide areas or shots from outside the box. This time, Wirtz and Bischof will look to receive the ball between Greece’s two defensive lines. Against Serbia, Wirtz collected a pass from the flank inside the box, beat a defender and scored. If Greece push a midfielder forward to press him, Jonathan Burkardt could find space behind. If their midfield holds its position, Wirtz may have time to turn and pass or shoot.
If Greece protect the space in front of their penalty area as they did in the first meeting, Germany will have little room to play in behind. In that setup, the key is not Wirtz’s possession on its own, but whether Germany can follow it with a pass into the box. They had 75% possession in the first game but managed only 7 shots from inside the penalty area, with Greece’s defence and Tzolakis keeping them out. Klopp has said he will pick the players most likely to win this match. Whether starting Wirtz can break down Greece’s compact shape should become clear from Germany’s box entries early on.
Germany’s attack down the left will also look different from the first game. If Said El Mala starts there as expected, he will face Greece right-back Manolis Saliakas. El Mala had 4 shots in the 45 minutes he played against Serbia. If he cuts inside from the flank, Greece’s centre-backs will have to step across to cover him. Germany could add numbers on that side if left-back David Raum pushes forward, but the space behind Raum would then be a route for Greece when they win the ball. Karetsas would need to carry it forward, or Masouras would need to hold a long pass up front, to exploit that space.
Long passes are Greece’s most direct response to Germany’s press. Their first goal against the Netherlands began with a quick long ball from Tzolakis. Masouras won the aerial duel, then Ioannidis ran in behind Virgil van Dijk and finished. Klopp identified Greece’s long balls as a problem after their first meeting. In Germany’s projected defence, full-backs Ridle Baku and Raum have yet to play under Klopp, while Malick Thiaw or Finn Jeltsch, who could make his international debut, may partner Waldemar Anton at centre-back. How this new combination handles the high press and aerial duels against Masouras and Pavlidis will shape Greece’s chances.
That same approach also carries a risk for Greece. If Masouras and Pavlidis cannot hold up the long pass, Germany can win the ball back and attack immediately. Even with little possession, Greece need to keep the ball up front briefly to give their defence time to get set. They struggled to do that in the second half against the Netherlands, leaving them to defend for long stretches in front of their penalty area. With Tzolis unavailable, Karetsas may have to carry the ball forward more often, despite having started all three previous matches.
Set pieces offer Germany another route against a deep defence. They won 8 corners in the first meeting with Greece and 12 against Serbia. Greece conceded a second-half header to Van Dijk from a Joey Veerman corner against the Netherlands. If Germany keep attacking and win corners and second balls, Greece’s defence will have to deal with repeated aerial duels. Kimmich, who took free kicks in the first meeting, is absent this time. Germany’s corner count does not guarantee a goal.
The balance could shift as the match goes on. In the first meeting, Greece brought on Kourbelis and Ioannidis in the 59th minute, created a big chance in the 67th and scored in the 74th. This time, their defenders may be playing their fourth match of the camp. If Germany keep pressing high in the second half, Greece could find it harder to maintain their shape and deal with aerial balls. On the other hand, if Germany add more attackers without scoring, they will have to handle Greece’s long passes after losing possession. Both of Germany’s goals conceded under Klopp have come in the second half after they lost the ball while attacking.
The timing of the opener matters too. If Greece score early, Germany will have to push forward, while Greece face a long spell protecting a lead, as they did against the Netherlands. If Germany score first, Greece may have to defend higher or commit more players to attack, giving Germany chances to counter as soon as they win the ball. If the game stays 0-0 for a long time, it could follow the same pattern as the first meeting, with Greece defending against Germany’s attack. Greece’s accumulated minutes will also weigh more heavily in the second half this time.
3. Final assessment and prediction
We expect a 2-1 Germany win. Greece could test Germany’s new defensive combination in the first half with a long pass from Tzolakis for Masouras. Wirtz and Bischof give Germany more options through the middle than they had in the first meeting, but a big lead looks unlikely while Greece keep their shape compact. We expect Germany’s chances to increase after the 60-minute mark as they sustain their press and attack against a Greek defence carrying a heavy workload.
Jovanovic has shown he can change his team’s approach to suit the opposition and create chances with second-half substitutions. This time, Tzolis’ absence takes away a ball-carrying option, and Greece’s defence faces the strain of four straight starts. Klopp has indicated he will prioritise a winning lineup, and Germany cannot catch Greece in the table if they lose. Taking the matchup between Greece’s long balls and Germany’s high press into account, we still expect Greece to score once, but see Germany having the edge in the second half.
The market also leans towards a Germany win, but Serbia’s attacking numbers may have pushed expectations towards a wide-margin victory. We would not expect Germany to produce the same volume against a Greece side that defends deeper than Serbia. Greece can still send long balls towards Masouras without Tzolis, and nearly the same defenders who restricted Germany’s shots inside the box in the first meeting are available. That is why we see Germany’s most likely winning margin as one goal. If Greece score first, then hold their shape in front of the penalty area and use long passes to escape Germany’s press after the break, a German comeback becomes much harder to picture.
