[2026 UEFA Nations League] Netherlands vs Serbia Preview Kick-off: Oct 5, 03:45 (Korea time)
Netherlands and Serbia meet at 03:45 Korea time on Oct 5 at the Philips Stadion in Eindhoven for their fourth League A Group 2 match in the UEFA Nations League. The Netherlands won 2-1 in Belgrade a week ago and now host Serbia. Both sides need a result: the Netherlands are chasing group leaders Greece, and Serbia still have no points. Their routes to fixing the problems from the first meeting are different.
1. Match overview and current form
The Netherlands have 1 win and 2 draws from 3 games. Their 5 points leave them second, 2 behind Greece. Serbia have lost all 3, scoring 2 and conceding 6, and sit bottom. The Netherlands need to bank points before they host Greece in November. Serbia need a starting point for climbing off the bottom in their remaining games. Both teams played away on Oct 2 and are back out three days later, so the starting line-ups for the last match of this camp matter too.
Teams Netherlands: 3 group stage games, 5 points · 5 scored, 4 conceded / last meeting: 2-1 win away at Serbia Serbia: 3 group stage games, 0 points · 2 scored, 6 conceded / last meeting: 1-2 loss to the Netherlands
Since Xavi Hernandez took charge, the Netherlands have drawn 1-1 with Germany, beaten Serbia 2-1 and drawn 2-2 with Greece. They conceded in all three games and came from behind twice. Against Germany, substitute Ruben van Bommel set up Cody Gakpo's stoppage-time equaliser, and against Greece they made three changes at half-time and pulled back a 0-2 deficit. The manager's in-game adjustments have worked, but in the first half against Greece the new midfield combination could not handle the opponent's press. Xavi admitted that first-half selection was his mistake.
Serbia lost to Greece, the Netherlands and Germany in turn. Against Greece they led after 4 minutes but conceded twice in the second half. Against the Netherlands they equalised just after a half-time substitution but then conceded the winner. In Germany they started Dusan Tadic and Luka Jovic and still managed only 1 shot. The striker pairing that worked in Belgrade struggled to create chances in Munich when the whole German team defended deep.
The only official meeting between the two, counting Serbia as an independent nation, is last week's game. The Netherlands led the first half with 65% possession and 11 shots to 2. Crisencio Summerville won a penalty on the right and Mex Meerdink scored it. Tadic and Jovic, introduced at the start of the second half, created an equaliser from their first attack. The Netherlands won it with Meerdink's goal in the 69th minute, but how they failed to clear the ball that stayed in their box right after Serbia's substitutions is something to look at again before this match.
The absentees affect both the attacking link-up and the defensive pairings. With Gakpo out with an ankle injury, the Netherlands must use Noa Lang or Van Bommel on the left. In place of Brian Brobbey, Meerdink and Joshua Zirkzee are the candidates up front. Right-sided centre-back Jan Paul van Hecke has also left the camp, so Jurrien Timber or Nathan Ake is expected to fill that spot. For Serbia, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, whose long forward pass started the opening goal against Greece, did not travel. Dusan Vlahovic and Aleksandar Mitrovic are also out, so the central attack depends even more on Jovic.
Xavi said he will make some changes to the starting XI and raise the intensity from the first minute. Pavlovic mentioned chances for new players. In the second half against Greece, the Netherlands kept the ball in midfield after Gravenberch and Tijjani Reijnders came on and pulled back two goals. If those two start, the Netherlands can open with the midfield that dominated the first half in Belgrade. Serbia have changed their line-up heavily every game, and media forecasts have them lining up with five at the back this time. The actual shape can't be confirmed until the line-ups are announced.
2. Matchup analysis
The Netherlands' main attacking route is the right. In Belgrade, Summerville cut inside while Denzel Dumfries pushed on the outside, and Serbia's left-sided defender Aleksa Terzic had to deal with both in turn. Summerville's run led to the penalty, and Dumfries also got a one-on-one with the keeper. If Serbia line up with five at the back as expected, their left wing-back and left-sided centre-back can share the job of marking the two. That is why we can't assume the Netherlands will get into the box down the right as easily as they did in the first meeting.
That response also affects Serbia's attack. If Filip Kostic plays left wing-back and spends long spells tracking Dumfries, Serbia will struggle to use his forward runs and crossing. Once Kostic goes forward, Dumfries can advance into the space behind him. When the right side is crowded, the Netherlands can also switch the ball to Lang on the other flank, or let Reijnders receive in the middle. Lang pushed forward on the left in the second half against Greece, and the attack that led to the equaliser began with his cross.
Midfield decides how often those wide attacks get started. In the first half in Belgrade, with Joey Veerman, Ryan Gravenberch and Reijnders together, the Netherlands held the ball for long spells. In the first half against Greece, the combination without Gravenberch and Reijnders was pressed and lost the ball. If Serbia use the expected 5-2-3, Sasa Lukic and Nemanja Maksimovic in midfield will face the Netherlands' three. If Tadic drops deeper to help, Serbia can block the passing lanes through the middle, but there are fewer attackers around Jovic when he receives the ball up front.
Pavlovic may also press higher than he did against Germany. He judged that the team sat too deep in that game and said Serbia were not aggressive enough. Since the Netherlands conceded against Greece after a backward-pass error under pressure, Serbia winning the ball early and creating chances is possible. But while the forwards join the press, only two midfielders are left to protect the middle. If the Netherlands get past the first press, Reijnders and Gravenberch can receive in front of the Serbian back line. Where Serbia defend will change both their chances and their risk of conceding.
Serbia's route to a goal is Tadic's link play and Jovic's movement in the box. The equaliser in Belgrade came when Tadic found Jovic from the left, and Jovic scored the ball left in the box after the keeper had saved consecutive shots. There was also a chance when Jovic headed Tadic's corner. The Netherlands also conceded against Germany after blocking the first shot and giving the second ball back to the opponent. This time, Van Hecke's absence changes the right-sided centre-back pairing too. How Virgil van Dijk and his new partner handle the first contest on long balls and the loose balls that follow in the box will be important.
But to repeat that moment, Serbia have to get the ball to Tadic and Jovic. In the Germany game without Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Serbia had no shots inside the box and Jovic did not get a shot away. Even if five at the back slows the Netherlands' wide attacks, a defensive line that stays low also means fewer passes reach the forwards. On the other hand, if Serbia concede first and have to come forward, Jovic gets chances to receive in the Dutch box, but space also opens on the Netherlands' right once Kostic advances.
We also have to separate the number of chances from the number of goals. In this tournament Serbia have allowed 24 shots to Greece, 23 to the Netherlands and 32 to Germany. Yet in Belgrade 10 of the Netherlands' shots were blocked, and Vanja Milinkovic-Savic stopped a clear Dumfries chance. The Netherlands scored 2 despite 3.46 expected goals, as counted by Eurosport's Dutch edition. They may well create plenty of shots again, but with five at the back and the same goalkeeper expected, shot counts alone make a big margin hard to predict.
In the second half, the gap in the quality of the bench matters. Four of the five goals scored under Xavi came after the 59th minute, and Serbia have conceded 4 of their 6 in this tournament after the 60th. The Netherlands can bring on Van Bommel and an attacker who misses out on the starting spot up front. If Tadic and Jovic start for Serbia, they can't repeat the half-time double substitution from Belgrade. Even if the first half ends 0-0, that is a reason for the Netherlands to add attackers after the break.
3. Final verdict and conclusion
We expect a Netherlands win by two goals, with a score of 2-0 or 3-1. The more likely scenario is 2-0: Serbia defend deep and create few chances, and the Netherlands score twice through wide attacks, set pieces and second-half substitutions. If Serbia fall behind, push forward and pull one back from a Tadic set piece, the Netherlands can use the extra space on the flanks to score again, which makes 3-1 possible.
If the Netherlands line up with Veerman, Gravenberch and Reijnders in midfield as expected, they start with the trio that held the ball in the first half in Belgrade. Serbia's midfield has to limit the Netherlands' possession without Sergej Milinkovic-Savic. In the second half the Netherlands have more bench options, and Serbia have conceded most of their goals in that period this tournament. These conditions are our basis for a Dutch win.
The market leaned toward a big Netherlands win after Serbia managed only 1 shot against Germany. But in Belgrade, Serbia allowed plenty of shots and still limited the damage to 2 goals thanks to their defending in front of the box and Vanja Milinkovic-Savic's saves. If they line up with five at the back as expected, they also have more defenders to stop the Dutch breakthroughs on the right. We agree with the market on a Netherlands win, but we centre the margin on 2 goals.
This outlook assumes the Netherlands start with the expected midfield. If Xavi changes the midfield again and they lose the ball as they did in the first half against Greece, and Serbia score first from a long ball or a loose ball in the box, the two-goal win could turn into a one-goal game.
