[2026 UEFA Nations League] France vs Italy: Match Preview Kick-off: October 3, 03:45 (Korea time)
France and Italy meet at the Stade de France in Saint-Denis at 03:45 Korea time on October 3 for their third League A, Group 1 match in the UEFA Nations League. France top the group after back-to-back away wins, and this will be Zinedine Zidane’s first home match as coach. Italy bounced back from defeat to Belgium with a win away to Türkiye, but now face a test of whether they can keep their possession-based approach against France’s pressing.
1. Match overview and team form
France beat Türkiye and Belgium 1-0 to collect six points. Italy lost 0-2 to Belgium, then beat Türkiye 4-1 to reach three points. They are level on points with Belgium but sit third after losing the head-to-head. Only the top two in the group advance to the quarter-finals, so a win would put France within touching distance of qualification, while a defeat would leave Italy six points behind the leaders. Both teams play again on October 5: France host Belgium at the same stadium, while Italy face Türkiye in Bologna.
Group-stage record: France 2 wins, 2 goals scored, 0 conceded / Italy 1 win, 1 loss, 4 goals scored, 3 conceded Recent competitive record: France 13 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses in 16 matches / Italy 7 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses in 12 matches Last match: France won 1-0 away to Belgium / Italy won 4-1 away to Türkiye
France’s last two wins came by the same score, but in very different ways. Against Türkiye, France pressed after the opposition struggled to deal with the ball at the back, won possession and Kylian Mbappé finished Michael Olise’s pass. Against Belgium, France created several chances but couldn’t score until Olise received a pass from substitute Rayan Cherki, drove forward from his own half and scored the winner in the 88th minute. Creating chances even after making nine changes to the starting lineup showed the depth of France’s squad. Still, Belgium had two shots in the second half that required saves from Mike Maignan. The clean sheet alone doesn’t mean France kept the opposition’s attack in check throughout.
France will play their first home match without Mbappé. He injured his left knee during the goal against Türkiye and has been ruled out for the rest of the camp. His absence takes away both his runs in behind and his finishing ability. The expected front line has Ousmane Dembélé through the middle, with Olise and Désiré Doué out wide. Dembélé’s ability to drop deep and link play, and the wide forwards’ ability to take on defenders one-on-one, will be key. France are also without centre-backs William Saliba and Ibrahima Konaté. If Dayot Upamecano and Jérémy Jacquet start together, it will be their first time partnering each other in a competitive international.
Italy’s last two matches showed both the benefits and the risks of trying to keep the ball. They lost possession in their own half against Belgium and conceded twice. They created chances with crosses from wide areas after the break, but didn’t score. Against Türkiye, Sandro Tonali dropped between the centre-backs to help build from the back, while forward Giacomo Raspadori came deeper to link the passes. Italy used Michael Kayode’s runs down the right to score three times in the first half. However, coach Roberto Mancini said the team’s performance dipped after the 60th minute. Türkiye were also without two key players, so that scoreline is a poor guide to Italy’s attacking threat against France.
Raspadori, central to that build-up, has left the squad, and Nicolò Cambiaghi, who replaced him in the second half against Türkiye, is also unavailable for the trip to Paris. Left-sided players Federico Dimarco and Andrea Cambiaso are out injured too. Kayode may again push forward on the right, but the starting lineup will determine who can find him with passes from the middle. Moise Kean’s fitness will also be assessed before the match. Italy made eight changes to their starting lineup against Türkiye, but Mancini said he plans to rotate less against France. Many of the players who started in Bursa could be back on the pitch just four days later.
The teams each won 3-1 away from home in their 2024 Nations League meetings. In Paris, both France and Italy conceded after losing possession; in Milan, all three of France’s goals started with Lucas Digne set pieces. Both coaches have since changed, and Digne, Dimarco, Cambiaso and Raspadori are all absent from the squads. How the teams handle the ball under pressure is more relevant to this match than those past scorelines. Rain isn’t expected in Saint-Denis around kick-off, and winds should be light, so the weather is unlikely to particularly favour either side’s short passing game.
2. Tactical matchup
The key battle is Italy’s build-up from the back against France’s high press. Mancini and Alessandro Bastoni have said Italy intend to keep possession against France as well. If Tonali drops between the centre-backs, Italy can give themselves more passing options at the back. Once they beat the first line of pressure, they can move the ball into midfield and send Kayode forward on the right. France’s priority is less about matching the number of players Italy have at the back and more about blocking the pass from Tonali into midfield.
Where Italy lose the ball will determine the risk of that approach. Belgium’s opener came after a pass from Romano was intercepted, and their second goal also began with an Italian turnover and a counterattack. Romano isn’t in the squad for the trip to Paris, but several Italy players gave the ball away in that match. France, too, pressed a mistake at the back into the winning goal against Türkiye. If Italy lose possession with their full-backs pushed high, France can attack the space behind them as soon as they win the ball. If Italy get past the initial press cleanly, France will have fewer chances to attack in the opposition half.
France’s Olise on the right and Italy’s Riccardo Calafiori on the left will be another matchup to watch. Olise received the ball on the right, beat his marker and scored the winner against Belgium. If Calafiori pushes forward to support Italy’s build-up and they lose the ball, Olise could target the space behind him. Calafiori can limit Olise’s runs by staying back, but that would leave Italy with one fewer player supporting attacks down the left. France can create a similar situation on the other flank through Doué or Bradley Barcola. With Mbappé out, though, it remains to be seen who will finish the chances created by those wide attacks.
Italy’s response could begin down the right, where Kayode operates. Against Türkiye, he set up a scoring move with a shot from the right and scored himself. France are expected to start Adrien Truffert or Andy Diouf at left-back against him. Diouf made his first start at left-back in a back four against Belgium and allowed Dodi Lukébakio to dribble past him and shoot after the break. Truffert got forward against Türkiye but didn’t see enough of the ball. If an Italy forward links the play inside when Kayode pushes on, they can put France’s left flank under pressure. With Raspadori unavailable, someone else will need to make those connections.
There are opportunities for both teams in midfield too. If Italy get past France’s first press while France have only one defensive midfielder, Nicolò Barella or Davide Frattesi could make late runs into the space beside him. If France use Cherki in midfield to help build attacks, covering that space will become even more important. On the other hand, if Dembélé drops into the space between Italy’s midfield and defence to receive the ball, a centre-back following him could open room for a France winger to run in behind. The number of opportunities on the flanks will depend on which team can move the ball forward safely through midfield.
The difference in how the coaches use their benches could matter more as the match goes on. With the Belgium game goalless, Zidane brought on Dembélé, then Cherki and Olise, and the latter two combined for the winner. Against Türkiye, he added midfield cover to protect the lead. Mancini admitted Italy’s performance dropped after the 60th minute against Türkiye. If he again relies on many of the players who started in Bursa, they may have to face France’s substitutes in the second half on short rest. France could also leave opportunities for Italy through Kayode’s forward runs on the right or on the counter while they add attackers in search of a goal. Given that France allowed Belgium to counterattack in the second half, a deeper bench doesn’t guarantee a clean sheet.
3. Prediction and conclusion
A likely scenario is France taking the lead and extending it in the second half. Italy’s plan to keep possession in their own half will be up against the kind of press that led to France’s winning goal against Türkiye. Olise can attack the space behind Italy’s advancing left-back, while France’s winger on the opposite side can exploit the space left when Kayode joins the attack. After Italy’s players who featured in Bursa return to action on short rest, Zidane will be able to bring on attacking options in the second half. If France score first, Italy will push forward in pursuit of an equaliser, creating more chances for France’s wide forwards to attack.
The market’s strong rating of France’s chances is supported by more than their home advantage and position at the top of the group. The matchup between Italy’s build-up and France’s press points the same way. The question is how many goals there will be. The market has leaned towards a low-scoring match, reflecting Zidane’s two 1-0 wins and the absences among both teams’ attacking options. But France’s most recent 1-0 win came with nine changes to the starting lineup, and Italy intend to keep the ball and play forward against France too. If Italy stick with that approach after falling behind, there could be chances for both a France second goal and an Italy reply.
The predicted score is 3-1 or 2-0 to France. France are expected to win the ball in Italy’s half and take the lead, then use the space Italy leave as they push forward to stretch the margin to two goals in the second half. A 3-1 looks more likely, with Kayode’s attacking play down the right or a set piece giving Italy a consolation goal. However, if Italy can use Tonali’s deeper role to get past France’s initial press consistently, France will have fewer chances to attack. In that case, the basis for predicting a two-goal win weakens, and the match could become much tighter.
