Two different shapes here. In Rome, one side creates the better chances and the other has been collapsing at the back. In Zwolle, two leaky teams with weak attacks meet, and the chances should come at both ends.
Lazio are first in Serie A, and their last games were backed by real chance volume: around 1.8 expected goals for against 1.1 against, and nearly five shots on target a game. The 6-2 win at Sassuolo was not luck. Cagliari have lost three straight league games and conceded ten in them, and they arrive without two midfielders who are confirmed out, so Lazio's possession should meet little resistance in midfield. Lazio have played their recent run with the same four absentees, so that lineup is already tested over four wins. Cagliari did create chances at Roma, so the stand-in Lazio goalkeeper is their main route. That's why I'm siding with Lazio to win.
Zwolle and Den Haag sit near the bottom of the Eredivisie, and both defences concede around 1.8 expected goals and 2.3 real goals a game. Each side allows about 18 shots per match and neither controls the ball. Den Haag are short of two forwards, but they have been out for the whole recent run and the team still scored in most of its games. Zwolle's missing defender leaves their back line loose against Den Haag's wide play. I expect an open, error-prone game, and that's why I'm on the goals side here.
