Ziraat Bankasi are the champions and the stronger six, and their serve should break a fragile Sungurlu reception in most sets. But this season Ziraat have been slow starters, giving away early sets whenever their receiving outside Ishikawa was missing. Sungurlu are newly promoted and winless, yet they have taken a set in three of their four league matches. The real question here is whether Ziraat's own reception has one loose set in it.
Ziraat win long sets and tie-breaks. They closed 15-7 at Alanya and 15-10 against Altekma, and Toniutti, Clevenot, Hamarat and Efe Bayram are a level above anything Sungurlu field. The weak spot is early in matches. Without Ishikawa they lost set one 14-25 to Altekma and 19-25 at Alanya, set two 24-26 to Gaziantep, and set three 25-27 at Alanya. With him in the six they swept Fenerbahce, and that is their only sweep this season.
Sungurlu score through their foreign finishers, Espeland and the opposite Ensing, plus a block that put up ten points against Galatasaray. Their reception falls apart against heavy serving, as it did in the straight-sets loss at Gebze. Still, they took a set from Galatasaray and from IBB at home, and from Spor Toto in this same Ankara hall only a few days ago.
Ishikawa was left out of the squad for the five-setter at Alanya, and nothing since then says he is back. That match ran 138 minutes, and Ziraat have travelled home since. IBB and a cup tie come within a week, and coach Kavaz has said he wants to give young setter Hilmi Sahin minutes. Against the weakest side on their schedule, some rotation makes sense.
I expect Ziraat to control most of the match through their serve, with one early or middle set turning tight while Espeland and Ensing attack a reception that isn't settled yet. Set three after a two-set lead is another window: Sungurlu won set three at home twice after trailing.
That's why I'm siding with Sungurlu nicking at least one set, so the match runs beyond three sets, while Ziraat still most likely win it.
