At the Racecourse, Wolves will have the ball and Wrexham will sit in a five, so the match turns on whether Wolves' second-half push breaks the block before Wrexham land a set piece. In Gaziantep, the volleyball is about how close the sets get, not who wins them. The home side has played tight sets against everyone, and the visitors have yet to win cleanly on the road.
Wrexham v Wolves. Wolves keep the ball and build volume: 62 percent and fifteen shots in the box at Bristol, then 24 shots against Watford. Their goals often come late. At Bristol nearly all their threat came after the break and Neave scored twice in the last ten minutes, and Chirewa scored off the bench at Burnley. Wrexham are strong at home but give up the ball to good sides. They beat Middlesbrough from a deep block, yet against West Brom they lost a lead to two goals in the last ten minutes after the visitors' changes.
The absences sit on Wrexham's side. Sam Smith is out for the season and Windass and Broadhead are out too, so the bench that would chase a game is thin. Wolves' doubts are players who didn't start the win at Bristol, so the same XI is available. Wrexham's real route is Moore in the air and set pieces, and I respect it. But the late part of the match favours the side with the deeper bench. That's why I'm siding with Wolves, with the draw covered.
Gaziantep v Alanya. Gaziantep's home sets have all been close. They went five sets with Fenerbahce after leading two sets to nil, and lost every set to Altekma by two points. Their attack is spread over four scorers, with Wen dangerous off the bench, so a block can't shut down one route. Alanya's record flatters them because three points were awarded. On court they have no clean league win away from home, and their one tight match ended with a late collapse after leading twice.
I expect long rallies, deuce sets and probably four or five sets, whoever comes out on top. That's why I'm going with a long, high-scoring match.
