Wonju DB host the league leaders with a very different frontcourt from the one that lost this fixture in October. Samsung beat DB by three in Wonju with Henry Ellenson and Kang Sang-jae both on the floor for DB, and both are now missing. Samsung's whole rotation, including both imports, is intact. The game should hinge on the post, where the matchup has moved one way since the first meeting.
Samsung win through Kerem Kanter. He put up 27 points and 10 rebounds with 10 free-throw attempts against DB in October, and 32 and 12 at Mobis just two days ago. The guards, Han Ho-bin and Lee Kwan-hee, feed off him with catch-and-shoot threes, and Samsung concede the fewest points in the league. DB win through Ethan Alvano's drives and free throws, Rayshawn Hammonds on the block, and a lot of threes.
The key matchup is Kanter against what is left of DB's frontcourt. Ellenson scored 29 in the first meeting and is out through the weekend. Kang, a starting forward and DB's defensive anchor, has missed the last two games. Their import slot now goes to Alan Williams, who fouled out in 16 minutes at LG and picked up four fouls at KCC. A post scorer who draws fouls, against a stand-in big who keeps fouling, is the clearest current edge in this game.
DB still have real weapons. Alvano scored 34 with 12 free throws at LG, Hammonds had 28, and DB went 3-2 without Ellenson. But more of the load now falls on those two, which makes DB easier to defend, and their threes come and go from night to night.
I expect DB to start fast at home after five days off, then the game turns in the third quarter, where Kanter has built margins before. If Williams picks up early fouls there, DB have to go small and Samsung's post-and-kick game opens up. Samsung's road wins have been close ones, so a tight finish with Lee Kwan-hee closing is the likely shape. Samsung's travel is a minor factor, partly cancelled out by DB playing SK the next day.
The market still has DB as favourites against a side that beat them with a fuller roster. That's why I'm siding with Samsung to win on the road.
