I expect a tight match despite Vitória’s strong home record. Their recent shots have not consistently turned into clear chances. Chapecoense have still found openings away from home, and that matters more to my judgment than the gap in the table.
Against Cruzeiro, Vitória took 21 shots but produced only 0.50 expected goals. Renê finished a move through the middle, yet much of the attack relied on long passes and crosses. The side also struggled to slow Cruzeiro after the break.
Chapecoense’s results tell a less complete story of their attack. They created 2.81 expected goals at Grêmio despite losing, and Marcinho scored twice at Corinthians. The expected front line keeps those wide and counterattacking routes in play against a Vitória defense that has recently given up chances.
