Two matches in which one side's measured weakness meets exactly the kind of opponent that can use it. In Venice, Udinese's back line has leaked chances against every level of opponent, and their own attack creates little. In Seville, the hosts score in every game but have a habit of conceding late, and Alaves are a side whose away goals arrive late from the bench.
Venezia v Udinese: Venezia carry the ball and attack down the flanks against a Udinese back three without Alaba and Zanoli. That defence has given up big chances even to mid-table sides like Lecce and Torino, so it is not just a problem against the elite. Udinese's attack against organised sides has produced very little, and a new coach has had only days to change that. Venezia's finishing has been poor and Adorante is out, so a draw is the main alternative ending, not an away win. That's why I'm siding with Venezia, with the draw covered.
Sevilla v Alaves: Sevilla have scored in all eleven league games, against every level of opponent, and their goals come from transitions, set pieces and a wide spread of scorers. They do not dominate the ball at home, which hands Alaves time on it. Away from the big clubs, Alaves have taken fifteen to twenty shots a game, and their goals have come in the final ten minutes through Mariano and the bench. Sevilla have leaked late at Levante, Getafe and Espanyol and have four red cards in the league. That's why I'm siding with both teams finding the net.
