Three basketball games, one theme: style matchups that the standings don't fully show. In Hiroshima, a home side built on the offensive glass and the free-throw line meets a road team that lives on three-point volume and rarely fouls. In Utsunomiya, a high-volume shooting team at home faces a visitor short of guards on a quick turnaround. In Busan, an in-season KCC import pair meets a Fubon unit that has not played a competitive game together.
Hiroshima vs Sendai. Hiroshima (13-1) win inside-out. Kofi Cockburn is the engine on the offensive glass, Dwayne Evans II and Christopher Smith draw fouls, and the team got to the line 37 times against Nagasaki. Their own shooting from deep is weak, though, at about 31%. Sendai take 30-37 threes a night at about 37%. Jarrett Culver has put up 31 and 34 points in two of his last three games, and Sendai's opponents have drawn only 8-19 free throws across their last six boxed games. That low-foul habit takes away part of Hiroshima's favourite channel. Cockburn's boards are real, but they are about one normal shooting swing, and the perimeter gap is bigger. Against the common opponent Nagasaki, Sendai won by 20 on the road while Hiroshima won by 7 at home. All four Sendai imports played their last game on light minutes, and no absences are reported for either side. That's why I'm siding with Sendai to keep this within a home-court margin or win it.
Utsunomiya vs Kyoto. Brex are without their main creator, Kell (concussion), but they have two games of data without him, including a home double-overtime win despite 20 turnovers and a cold shooting night. Kyoto have been without point guard Shibuta since October. Lead guard Kishimoto was missing from their last box score with no explanation published. Kyoto turn the ball over about 14 times a game, and the spikes came even against non-pressing teams. They are also on two days' rest with a road trip on that thin guard group. Brex take five or six more threes a game, while Kyoto's inside game and free throws roughly match Brex's bigs. Add the turnover edge and the home floor, and the count leans Brex by a few points. That's why I'm siding with Brex to win at home.
KCC vs Fubon. KCC's Louis King and Shawn Long already beat an import-strong Nagasaki by 15 on the road and won the EASL glass by double digits in both games. Heo Hoon is back running the offence after missing the nine-man game in which KCC turned it over 20 times. Fubon bring real size in Todorovic, Pickett and the returning Mbaye, plus three-point volume against a KCC defence that allows plenty of attempts. But this Fubon group has not played a competitive game in 39 days, half the roster is new and a guard is making his debut. Expect KCC to build the lead in the first half while Fubon find their timing, with the visitors' size and shooting pulling it closer late. That's why I'm siding with KCC to win the game outright.
