Udinese are not losing as a deep, direct side right now. They are losing as a side that keeps the ball with a patched-up back line and then gets caught on the break. Their own chance creation has been very thin. When a top visitor came to the Friuli recently, the game went one way.
In three of their last four league games Udinese had most of the ball (62% at Torino, 67% against Lecce) and still conceded heavily on the transition. Torino created 2.42 xG on 38% possession and Lecce 3.40 on 33%. At the other end, they managed only 0.42 to 0.70 xG in their defeats, and against Milan nearly everything they tried was from long range.
The absences make it worse. Runjaic confirmed before the match that Solet, Alaba and Zanoli are out at the back and that Bayo and Gueye are out up front. Davis and Zaniolo are not fully fit. That leaves a third-choice back three facing Roma's man-to-man press, with only one real striker.
Roma are missing Dybala, Pellegrini and Kone, but they also played without Pellegrini and Kone in the 4-2 win over Cagliari, so this attack (Malen, Mora and Soule, with the wing-backs crossing) is the current one and not a makeshift version. Roma's weakness is at the back, with Gollini in goal. Those goals came against sides that attacked in numbers, though, not against a team that has scored nine goals in nine games.
The most comparable game is Milan at the Friuli: 60% possession, 3.12 xG to 0.42 and a 2-0 win. Roma's 2-0 at Torino had the same shape. I expect Roma to press, force a turnover or score from a cross before half-time, and then use the space Udinese have to leave when they chase.
That's why I'm backing Roma to win clearly on the road, with a one-goal win still giving the stake back.
