Toyama are a strange team this season: sharp on the road and blunt at home. Their home offence has lived on the free-throw line, and Ibaraki are a side that rarely sends opponents there. Ibaraki's own big scoring nights came at home against soft defences, not on the road. Put together, this looks like a match played in the half court, with fewer easy points than the season averages suggest.
The split is stark. Toyama scored 77, 77, 77, 56 and 82 in their five home games, against 99, 81, 96, 94 and 105 on the road. In the home boxes their three-point shooting sat around 22%, and their twos were not much better. The 82 came with 34 of 36 at the line against a Shimane side that fouled on purpose.
That is the key matchup. Ibaraki gave up only 11 to 20 free-throw attempts in four of their last five games. If they keep Toyama around the low 20s, Toyama's home scoring stays in the mid-to-high 70s. On the other end, Ibaraki's road games produced 69 to 82 points. Their 98 and 102 came at home against Osaka and Altiri.
The main way Ibaraki break out is three-point volume from Yoshii, Maeda, Law and Delaney. That has swung from 8 of 37 at Alvark to 16 of 40 against Osaka. On the glass Ibaraki should have a small edge, and turnovers look roughly even, so there's no extra possession channel pushing the pace.
There is no injury report for either team. The starters I'm relying on all played on Saturday, and both teams are playing their third game in six days.
Expect Ibaraki to start quicker. Toyama push back in the second quarter from the line, and the third quarter, where Ibaraki have defended best, is where the game should settle. The nine games that fit this setup averaged in the mid-150s, and eight of the nine stayed below the market's number. Even after discounting for opponent strength, my projection is the high 150s to low 160s. That's why I'm on the low-scoring side of this one.
