The last time these two met in Turin, under the same two coaches, the home side did not land a single shot on target. Torino's recent wins have come from a few early direct goals while letting opponents shoot freely. Monza create more chances over the season and arrive with a press that already beat Torino's build-up once. The match looks closer than the table suggests, with the chance volume leaning towards the visitors.
In the cup meeting at this ground seven weeks ago, Monza had 19 shots and 8 on target against Torino's 16 and none. The season numbers point the same way: Monza create about 1.8 expected goals a game and Torino about 1.2, while Torino give up around 16 shots a match. At Parma they faced 25 and still won, which is a result their keeper carried rather than a mechanism.
The key matchup is Monza's press against Torino's build-up from the back. Torino's answer is to skip it: long balls to Simeone and Adams and crosses from Belghali, which is how they scored inside four minutes at Parma. That route runs at a Monza back three missing Maye and Ziolkowski, so it is real and I weigh it. Torino's strike pair is also different from the cup game, when Kulenovic and Zapata led the line.
The flow hinges on the first goal. An early Torino goal lets them drop and counter into Monza's high line. If Monza score first, Torino have to build against the press, which is exactly where they were blank in the cup. If both routes cancel out, a level game is the natural result.
With the same venue, the same coaches and Monza's stronger chance creation on both the meeting and the season numbers, I'm siding with Monza, covered if it ends level.
