Telstar should find stretches of possession and send balls in from the wings. Utrecht can attack the space left behind that advance and reach Alarcón through Zagré or a restart. The opening may be close, but the next useful shot after a reply looks decisive. Both teams have shown they can answer an earlier goal.
Telstar's Owusu can turn a loose ball into a shot and Brouwer supplies wide service. Yet their recent attacks yielded few shots on target against Almere and Go Ahead Eagles, and they conceded another goal after answering both Eagles and Feyenoord. Utrecht have current Alarcón and Agougil routes to another chance, while Padt has made the saves needed to end an opponent's late attack.
Utrecht's five listed absences were already present in the Zwolle and cup matches, so their recent attacking and goalkeeper roles account for those losses. I see Telstar creating a home response, then Utrecht finding the cleaner final finish and defending the next one. That's why I'm siding with Utrecht to win.
