Three matches with one thread: in each, one team's style feeds exactly what the other does well. Central Coast keep the ball without hurting anyone, and that leaves space for Sydney's counter. In Shiga and in Anyang, defences that leak and foul meet opponents who get to the line, so the scoreboard should keep moving.
Sydney against the Mariners. Under Hutchinson the Mariners are not a low block: they kept 58% of the ball away at Wellington and created almost nothing (six shots). Their league goals so far are two penalties and one goal scored with a man advantage. When they lose the ball they get carved open: Wellington had 11 shots inside the box, and Newcastle had 18 shots. Kisnorbo's Sydney sit compact and break through Sunday and Toure, so the matchup suits them. Sydney really have only two absences, Walatee and Hollman, both already missing from recent games, while Hoefsloot and Farrell are back. Expect a tight first half and goals after the break, with Sydney's counter as the main route. I'm siding with Sydney.
Shiga against Kawasaki. Each of Shiga's last six home games produced 170 points or more. They shoot a lot of threes, draw plenty of fouls, and concede in the 80s and 90s. Kawasaki's two very low totals came against one opponent, Yokohama, on very cold shooting. On the road they scored 82 to 92 in three of four games. Kawasaki rarely force turnovers, so Shiga's ball-security problem stays hidden, and both teams send each other to the line. Every import on both sides played last time out. I'm on the high-scoring side.
Anyang against Seoul SK. Anyang without rim protector John Mooney are a different defence. With him they gave up about 74 a game; without him it is about 85, and opponents shoot 20 to 27 free throws instead of 8 to 10. SK are built to exploit that: Jamil Warney works the post and the offensive glass, and SK draw fouls (20 attempts in the first meeting). Mooney is listed out for weeks, and Anyang's other imports, Thomas and Reed, are both playing. Anyang's turnover pressure helps the scoring rather than slowing it: those turnovers became 23 points the other way in the first meeting. Again I'm on the high-scoring side.
