Two matches, two very different shapes. At the City Ground, Forest's home block against a possession side has a repeated pattern this season: few chances allowed and few created. In Stuttgart, both teams arrive with a healthy attack and a broken defensive unit, and each attack points straight at the other side's hole. One game should stay tight, the other should see both nets move.
Nottingham Forest against Manchester City. City will have the ball; they have had at least 57 percent in every listed game, and Forest held only 26 percent at home to Arsenal. That Arsenal game is the template. Forest kept them to about one expected goal and lost by a single late goal, then held Tottenham goalless. In four home league games under Glasner they never allowed more than modest chance totals, and their own attack never put more than three shots on target.
City's league finishing has also cooled, with one goal from a lot of chances in their last two league games, and they come in on less than three days' rest after a demanding away trip. City's leaky rest defence is a real route for a Forest counter, but even if it opens, it adds one goal, not the flood a big total needs. I see this one as City narrowly or a draw, with Forest's home block keeping the goals down.
Stuttgart against Werder Bremen. Stuttgart are missing their screening midfield, Stiller and Sauer with Karazor unlikely, and play with stand-in centre-backs who gave goals away from a long ball and a loose clearance in Istanbul. That is exactly where Bremen's one in-form route goes: Füllkrug winning long balls, counters through Grüll and Dinkçi, and penalties. Bremen have scored in every game this season.
At the other end, Bremen are without Weiser, N'Diaye and Agu, with Deman only half fit. Stuttgart's whole front five is intact and created plenty at Leverkusen and in Istanbul. At home they carry the ball, and their game against counter-attacking Gladbach ended with goals at both ends.
That's why I'm siding with a tight, low-scoring game at Forest and with both Stuttgart and Bremen finding the net.
