Marseille should spend long stretches working the ball toward both flanks, while Sturm seek the first regained pass into their front line. Territory alone may not decide it: Sturm's second contact after a direct ball or restart is central to their attack. Both teams have changes that can alter the delivery later in the match. The contest turns on whether Marseille's wide volume produces cleaner box contact than Sturm's shorter routes.
Seidl is the link from Sturm's first outlet to Diakité, with Stanković also available on restarts. Those connections worked in the derby despite the long-standing forward and midfield absences. Marseille can attack through Weah and Emerson, but their possession against Olympiacos did not consistently turn into dangerous finishes.
Khudyakov's injury places Helac in goal after his replacement minutes in the derby, and Højbjerg has travelled with Marseille after missing Angers. Sturm still have the Seidl-to-Diakité route and ways to contest the next loose ball when Marseille advance. I expect their home pressure to keep producing answers to Marseille's wide play. That's why I'm siding with Sturm Graz.
