Strasbourg will have the ball, but their losing run is not just a tough schedule. They have created very little for five league games in a row, and the players who changed that are missing. Auxerre are a direct counter-attacking side who have scored in every league game. This match comes down to whether Strasbourg's blunt possession can hurt a patched-up Auxerre defence before Auxerre's runners find the space behind it.
Strasbourg's last five league games produced very little in chance quality, and the worst of them was the one game against a side of Auxerre's level, away at Paris FC. Two of their four goals in that run were own goals. Their one big attacking day this season, at Troyes, came with Nanasi starting and Amo-Ameyaw off the bench. Both are now doubtful, and striker Panichelli is out. They have won once at the Meinau this season.
Auxerre under Will Still are happy without the ball. They beat Nice with less than a third of possession and won at Le Havre with Namaso and Faivre running in behind. On a common opponent, away at Rennes, Auxerre created clearly more than Strasbourg did.
The key matchup is Auxerre's front three, with Archer in form, against Strasbourg's full-backs Antwi and Oso when Strasbourg commit numbers forward. At the other end, Strasbourg's best route is Reyna, Yassine and Harder against an Auxerre back line missing Okoh and Fofana, with three more centre-backs doubtful. That is the real worry for Auxerre, but Strasbourg need creators to use it, and theirs are the ones missing.
Expect Strasbourg to push early with the crowd behind them, because Auxerre often concede at the start of each half. If that window passes level, the pressure of the losing run grows, and Auxerre's counters become the more dangerous threat. A draw is a very live outcome here.
That's why I'm siding with Auxerre not to lose this one.
