Two games where both defences give up chances and both attacks can use them, so goals look more likely than a quiet afternoon.
Sittard against Excelsior: Sittard concede about 2.3 xG a game and Excelsior about 1.7, and the combined xG total across the last ten games of the two sides averages around 3.0. Excelsior have gone over two and a half goals in all ten recent games. Sittard create little themselves, so the goals should mostly come from Excelsior's volume and their open back line. That's why I'm leaning to plenty of goals here.
Hoffenheim against Leverkusen: Hoffenheim have scored in nine of their last ten, create about 1.7 xG a game and concede nearly two goals a game. Leverkusen's league rows give up real chances, including more than three xG at Mainz, and their long run of clean sheets came largely against Europa League and cup-level opposition. Their forwards Kofane, Ben Seghir and Terrier are out, but the same absentees applied to their last four games already. I'm backing both sides to find the net.
