These two B.League games come down to who gets to the free-throw line and who controls the possessions, not who shoots best. Shimane's whole game is the three-point line, behind a four-man core playing heavy minutes, and that leaves them exposed to a side that lives on drawing fouls. In Ota, an unbeaten Nagoya side that wins on pressure and paint attacks meets the most careful ball-handling team in the league, and the rest of Nagoya's game still holds up even if the turnovers dry up.
Shimane take 26-38 threes at home, but they only got to the line 8-17 times in their recent home games and allowed 15-29. Okada, Kay, Heath and Dennis all play 32-38 minutes, and AlKhoury is the only real cover behind the bigs. Kay fouled out in the October meeting and had four fouls again more recently. Toyama's Angola and Willis keep getting to the line on the road, 21-30 team attempts a game, and Angola alone drew 20 in that October meeting.
Rest favours Shimane and so does three-point volume, and a hot shooting night is their way to win. But their home results don't separate: losses by 1, 1 and 7, wins by 11 and 12. I expect a close game decided at the line and on Willis's offensive rebounding, so I'm siding with Toyama to stay within reach or win.
In Ota, Nagoya take about 40 two-point shots a game at roughly 58% and earn more free throws than they give up. They won at Tokyo by 11 while forcing only 10 turnovers, and at Toyama by 13 with 37 free throws. Gunma protect the ball and take more threes, and Blackshear and Johnson get to the line at home, so this should be tighter than Nagoya's usual double-digit wins. Nagoya's full rotation played last time out, Gunma are still without Tsuji, and Nagoya are the stronger fourth-quarter team. I'm backing Nagoya to win on the road.
