Two home sides coming off road losses whose causes do not travel back with them. Samsung's defeat at DB came a day after their previous game, away against a rested, taller team. They now host a KT side that is missing its starting big and its best recent shooter. Kyoto's three-game skid was all on the road and all about turnovers against high-steal opponents, and Hokkaido is not that kind of team.
Samsung sit top of the KBL by protecting the ball. In recent games they had only 4 to 9 turnovers, and their offence runs through Kerem Kanter in the post plus a domestic group shooting well from three. KT's three straight wins came on shooting far above their season level, 40 percent from three against a season mark near 32 percent. Oczon, who hit four threes in one of those wins, is now out after surgery, and Ha Yun-gi is out for a month. That leaves Porter and Bass carrying the frontcourt for the league's best rebounding team. When KT shoot at their normal level away from home, they have lost by double figures.
The key matchup is Kanter against Porter. Kanter's shoulder is not right after the Mobis game, and he fouled out at DB. When Kanter was limited there, McCullough played 35 minutes for 23 points and 10 rebounds, so Samsung's interior does not disappear without him. I expect a tight first half, then Samsung building a managed lead through the middle quarters with Bass as KT's only closer. That's why I'm siding with Samsung at home.
Kyoto are a defence-first team. In their last five home games they allowed 73.6 points a game and went four and one. Their losses at Shinshu and Tokyo came with 18 to 19 turnovers against sides that made 11 steals. Hokkaido average about six steals, so Kyoto's main leak should shrink. Hokkaido score a lot, but they also allow almost 97 a game, including 118 at home to Akita, a team Kyoto held to 71.
Hokkaido's real weapon is the free-throw line, about 26 attempts a game against a Kyoto side that shoots poorly from the stripe, and Tominaga is coming off a knock to his leg. Kyoto usually start fast at home while Hokkaido start slowly, so I expect Kyoto to lead early and the game to tighten late. Even a narrow loss at the line keeps this close. That's why I'm siding with Kyoto at home.
