Two basketball games where the market view looks slightly off from the structure underneath. One is a mismatch of a collapsing defence against a steadier one, the other a tight game where the table flatters the home side.
Saga against Nagasaki: Saga are 1-8 and concede about ninety-two a game, and their frontcourt is thin with Dazinski out for about two months and Dotson hurt in the last game, which ended in a 70-115 loss. Nagasaki score little lately, with two games at sixty-five or fewer, but their defence is about ten points better than Saga's and the cause of their slump, Baba's absence, may reverse. I expect Nagasaki to build a lead from Saga turnovers and defensive lapses, with a margin of five to ten. That's why I'm siding with Nagasaki to cover on the road.
Seoul Thunders against KCC Egis: Seoul sit first at 5-0, but all five wins were tight, mostly as the underdog, with a total margin of only about twenty-four points. KCC are tenth but last season's champions, with two imports who dominate the paint and shoot well, and their last three KBL losses were all by seven or fewer against better-regarded sides. The game should be close and decided late. That's why I'm siding with KCC to win on the road.
