Two Serie A games, and in both the back lines are the story. Neither defence is whole, and the recent chance numbers say the games should stay open rather than settle into a tight grind.
Sassuolo against Fiorentina is a meeting of two leaky sides. Over the last ten league games Sassuolo concede about 2.3 a game and Fiorentina about 2.1, and the chance numbers against them sit at roughly 1.7 and 1.6 per game. Of the twenty team-games in those samples, none finished below two goals and sixteen reached three or more. Sassuolo are missing a broken-leg midfielder, a suspended midfielder and a defender, with their centre-back doubtful. Fiorentina are patching their back line with several regulars out. Both attacks were quiet recently, but that is one or two games against nine or ten that point the other way.
Atalanta against Parma looks lopsided on territory but not on goals. Atalanta create about 1.6 expected goals and give up about 1.8 over their last ten, and their last two league games finished 4-4 and 2-2. Four of their defenders are out, so Parma, who concede around 17 shots a game, will get chances of their own on the break. Parma's attack is thin, which is the one way this stays low, but Atalanta alone can carry a lot of the scoring.
That's why I'm siding with goals in both matches: the leaky defences, the absences at the back and the chance volume all point in the same direction.
