Sassuolo and Fiorentina both come in with defensive units missing in exactly the areas the other side attacks, and neither goalkeeper is saving above expectation. Newcastle host Everton only four days after losing to them in the cup, with the same coaches and almost the same players. The weak points that decided that tie are still in Newcastle's team.
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina. Sassuolo are missing their midfield screen: Thorstvedt is suspended and Kone, Boloca and Volpato are out. Behind them is a backup centre-back pair, and that box has already been beaten by crosses. Crosses are Fiorentina's main route, with Jiménez delivering for Njie and late runs from João Mário. Going the other way, Fiorentina field backup centre-backs and a backup left side, with Pongracic, Ranieri and Parisi all out. Their midfield also loses the ball in build-up, which is exactly what Berardi, Esposito and Laurienté feed on.
Turati and De Gea both conceded more than the chances deserved last time out. Fiorentina's last ten league games went over that total nine times, and Sassuolo's seven times. Aquilani has promised a compact side, but in a relegation fight whoever falls behind has to come out, and both of these teams have opened up while chasing. That's why I'm siding with goals in this match.
Newcastle vs Everton. In the cup, Everton pressed Dedic into the turnover for the opener, broke from Pickford's catches and tested stand-in keeper Hornicek with clean shots: five on target out of eleven. Livramento and Jaouen are still out, so Dedic and Hornicek stay in. Everton get Branthwaite back to deal with crosses. Newcastle shoot a lot, but against a set block their shots get blocked or miss: one on target out of sixteen against Villa, and nine out of twenty-eight in the cup. Pickford has saved eight of nine on target against them across his last three games.
Newcastle should have the ball and pin Everton back with crosses and corners. The first goal decides the shape, and Newcastle have conceded in every home league game this season. That's why I'm siding with Everton not to lose.
