Both matches hinge on how pressure becomes clear chances in the box. Rizespor can move the ball forward through Sowe, while Fenerbahçe have ways to create through possession and quick breaks. Feyenoord can stretch AZ down the right, and AZ have the passing to work through midfield. The key is which of those routes keeps producing chances as each game develops.
Rizespor have found shots at home, but their attacks have not consistently ended in clean finishes. Fenerbahçe can build sustained pressure or turn a change of possession into a run behind the defence. Greenwood and Brown give Muriqi support when Rizespor's fullbacks advance, while Sowe and Olawoyin are the home side's main link through the middle.
Mihaila's suspension removes one of Rizespor's wide outlets, and Laçi's fitness leaves their central progression unsettled. Semedo and Aké have recent minutes in Fenerbahçe's defence, so they bring familiar roles to the contest with Sowe. I expect Fenerbahçe to find chances both when Rizespor push forward and when the visitors hold territory. That's why I'm siding with Fenerbahçe away from home.
Feyenoord have repeatedly built entries on the right through Read's overlapping runs and Hadj Moussa's movement inside. Valente can then connect with Ferri's runs into the box. AZ can work the ball to Meerdink through Koopmeiners, Kwakman and Byskov, so the central midfield duel will decide how often either attack receives the ball in useful space.
Hadj Moussa is available, while AZ must replace Smit's forward passing in midfield. Feyenoord's pressure has a clear target in that changed AZ build-up, and the Read–Hadj Moussa pairing gives them a route to chances beyond turnovers. I expect their wide pressure and inside combinations to create the more sustained box access. That's why I'm siding with Feyenoord at home.
