QPR come into this match without the three players who made their recent home goals happen. Chair carried the ball, Madsen took the penalties and set pieces, and Burrell was the striker in form. Swansea arrive with the same side that controlled their away games, with only the right-back changed. This looks like a game about whether a stripped-down QPR counter can still hurt a possession team.
Swansea under Vitor Matos keep the ball and counter-press. They average close to sixty percent possession, and their away numbers held up at Derby and Millwall, where they created far more than they allowed. Last week's home defeat to West Ham came against a deep block that gave them no shots on target. That is the one way they have looked blunt.
The key matchup is Swansea's midfield against a QPR five without Chair. Without their best ball-carrier, QPR will struggle to get out of pressure, and the last time they played without Chair and Madsen they produced very little and lost heavily at Birmingham. Out wide, Yeo and Eom should get at a QPR right-back slot where Mbengue and Lamptey are both out.
QPR's best route is a break down their left into Swansea's stand-in right-back, with Kone running the channel, or a corner. Those were real routes a month ago. This week the men who finished those breaks are missing, and Welsh and Cabango have already kept good sides quiet with stand-ins around them.
I expect Swansea to have the ball and the territory, with QPR's best window in the first half and Swansea's bench of Vipotnik, Widell and Just taking over in the last half hour. A draw is possible if QPR repeat the West Ham job, but the damaged unit this week is QPR's attack. That's why I'm siding with Swansea.
