Two very different games, but both look like matches where one side's situation should shape the margin more than the headline names do.
In Philadelphia, the home side is playing its second game of the season after beating New York on the road, while Cleveland arrives for its opener after nine idle days. Cleveland has won seven of the last ten meetings in the data, including several 2025-26 results where its scoring volume overwhelmed Philadelphia's defence. Philadelphia's preseason shooting was poor, though that is a small sample. The big question is the status of Cleveland's centre, but a close game is the most likely shape, and a game decided by a few points should land on Cleveland's side. That's why I'm siding with Cleveland to stay within the margin.
In Rio, Flamengo host the second leg of a Libertadores semi-final level at 0-0. Estudiantes controlled the shot count in the first leg while Flamengo were missing their midfield anchor, who is now back. At home Flamengo have won eight of their last ten and conceded only five goals, and they beat Bahia 3-0 without the same absentees. Estudiantes have been poor away and must open up once they fall behind. A 1-0 is the most common Flamengo win, so I'm backing Flamengo on a line where that result gives the stake back and a two-goal win pays.
