Paderborn and Stuttgart have already shown how a lead can change the territory without settling the quality of the next shot. Paderborn's later pressure in that meeting was more dangerous than the final score suggests. Milan and Bologna face a similar test of whether early control becomes a second clean finish. Both matches hinge on the response after the first goal.
Stuttgart can escape pressure through Stiller and supply Demirović from Führich's side, but Paderborn's Curda and Obermair can raise the home press and feed second balls. Paderborn made several late chances in the first meeting and later found a separate bench finish against HSV. Stuttgart's planned goalkeeper change and Vagnoman's absence alter the first pass and flank assignment; the main Stuttgart creators remain. A tight game with a meaningful Paderborn reply is why I'm siding with Paderborn to stay close.
Bologna's first press can reach Milan's changed midfield before Milan's wide runners settle. Milan's Udinese opener ran through Modrić and Pulišić, who played that game but are reported as bench candidates here; Rabiot is out after missing Udinese. Bologna are missing attacking pieces too, yet Cambiaghi, Miranda, Bernardeschi and Casale provide a press and restart route. The thinner Milan opening supply and Bologna's separate answer are why I'm siding with Bologna to stay close.
