One game where the table flatters the home side and one where both defences leak. In both, the underlying chances matter more than the standings.
Paderborn against Hamburg: Paderborn have been outshot two weeks running, create under one expected goal a game, and are missing three midfielders and a defender. Their results have been kinder than their chances. Hamburg don't create much either, but they beat Stuttgart 1-0 and won 3-2 at Hoffenheim, taking chances against sides that leave space. A draw is a common result for Paderborn, which is why I want that outcome covered. I'm siding with Hamburg.
Mainz against Werder Bremen: Mainz create more than two expected goals a game but have conceded ten in four home league games. Bremen concede close to two expected goals a game and are missing several defenders, yet they scored twice in each of their last two draws with the same forwards absent. Whether Mainz win or not, this has the shape of a game with goals at both ends. That's why I'm on the goals side here.
