Two different shapes of match here. In the first, one side clearly owns the ball and the shots while the other lives on set pieces and the odd break. In the second, two balanced sides trade chances with thin back lines on both ends.
Okayama against FC Tokyo: Tokyo are second in the table and hold the ball, averaging well over 17 shots against about 12 for Okayama, with roughly twice as many on target and a clear expected-goals edge. They concede very little, and their goals come from many players, including the bench late on, as in the six-goal win over Mito. Okayama have lost four of their last five and rely on corners for their danger, but Tokyo allow few of those. The doubtful marks on a few Tokyo names are generic squad-feed flags, and the cover players have scored freely in recent games. I'm siding with Tokyo to win away.
Melbourne City against Sydney FC: both teams scored in eight of their last ten and conceded in seven of ten. City create through volume, with 15 to 16 shots in their last two, while Sydney are using a backup keeper and are missing a defender and a midfielder. City have also lost a striker, so they will not be one-sided, but each side only needs one goal to make this work. That's why I'm backing both teams to find the net.
