NEC's high press and wing supply can make this an uncomfortable start for Groningen. Groningen have a direct route into the space left by that pressure. NEC's recent win in Zagreb included repeat attacking entries, but also sustained chances conceded. The match may turn on which side closes the next defensive action after scoring.
Storm and Bischoff can feed Linssen and Chery, while Van Bergen and Willumsson offer Groningen a quick reply. Groningen's likely back four played together against Ajax; its newly reported Metu issue affects depth, while NEC's current missing defenders and Tadic were also absent in Zagreb. Groningen have had more recovery time and can answer through direct and wide supply. I'm siding with Groningen to stay level or better.
Hull are comfortable defending with numbers and breaking into wide space. Brentford should have more possession and seek Thiago through Damsgaard and Jensen. Hull's home defending has kept games close, while its counterattack has shown a way back after conceding. The key is whether Brentford can keep supplying the box after Hull clear the first wave.
Belloumi's carries and high regains test Brentford's left side and its replacement midfield cover. Janelt and Yarmolyuk played against Liverpool but are now suspended; Hull's familiar back-line and attacking spine played at Fulham despite the continuing absences around them. Brentford have several creators, yet Hull can break into the space left after those attacks. I'm siding with Hull to keep the final gap tight.
